2010 · Week 16

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

23·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Tim Tebow

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

HOU -2

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBroncos
  • +0.107EPA / play-0.017
  • 47.5%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback+0.089
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.205
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +0.65CPOE-2.61
  • 41.2%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.70
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. DEN are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9DEN @ HOU18–15DEN
2023 · W13DEN @ HOU17–22HOU
2022 · W2HOU @ DEN9–16DEN
2019 · W14DEN @ HOU38–24DEN
2018 · W9HOU @ DEN19–17HOU
2016 · W7HOU @ DEN9–27DEN
2013 · W16DEN @ HOU37–13DEN
2012 · W3HOU @ DEN31–25HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–DEN
HOUQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:14343Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 11:4037Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:01728Punt0–0
HOUQ1 5:52691Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 2:41420Punt7–0
HOUQ1 0:25784Touchdown14–0
DENQ2 11:43836Punt14–0
HOUQ2 7:2639Punt14–0
DENQ2 5:3534Punt14–0
HOUQ2 4:04737Field goal17–0
DENQ2 0:22110End of half17–0
DENQ3 15:00480Touchdown17–7
HOUQ3 12:58644Field goal20–7
DENQ3 10:14671Field goal20–10
HOUQ3 7:06852Field goal23–10
DENQ3 2:341370Touchdown23–17
HOUQ4 10:55728Punt23–17
DENQ4 7:421372Touchdown23–24
HOUQ4 3:02744Turnover23–24
DENQ4 1:1200End of half23–24

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub23/3331011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster19914.81
Derrick Ward133.00
Matt Schaub100.00
Jacoby Jones1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacoby Jones571150
Owen Daniels814731
Arian Foster45440
Joel Dreessen33330
James Casey11210
Kevin Walter12140
Derrick Ward11100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Tebow16/2930811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Correll Buckhalter11423.81
Lance Ball5387.60
Tim Tebow10272.71
Knowshon Moreno7192.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Lloyd591110
Jabar Gaffney47900
Correll Buckhalter33501
Eddie Royal27220
Knowshon Moreno11220
Lance Ball11130
Richard Quinn0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.14
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.86