Closing spread
HOU -2
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play-0.017
- 47.5%Success rate39.3%
- +0.151EPA / dropback+0.089
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.205
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.65CPOE-2.61
- 41.2%Third-down rate31.6%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
- 2.09Points / drive1.70
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. DEN are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 23/33 | 310 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 19 | 91 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Jones | 5 | 7 | 115 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 8 | 14 | 73 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 16/29 | 308 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Lance Ball | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 5 | 9 | 111 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 4 | 7 | 90 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 3 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Richard Quinn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.14
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.86