2025 · Week 9

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

18·15

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -1.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapTexans
  • +0.036EPA / play-0.008
  • 43.7%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.097EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.149
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -1.38CPOE-1.68
  • 42.4%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 62.1%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.05
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. HOU are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13DEN @ HOU17–22HOU
2022 · W2HOU @ DEN9–16DEN
2019 · W14DEN @ HOU38–24DEN
2018 · W9HOU @ DEN19–17HOU
2016 · W7HOU @ DEN9–27DEN
2013 · W16DEN @ HOU37–13DEN
2012 · W3HOU @ DEN31–25HOU
2010 · W16HOU @ DEN23–24DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001332Missed field goal0–0
DENQ1 7:24726Missed field goal0–0
HOUQ1 4:27757Field goal0–3
DENQ1 0:0430Punt0–3
HOUQ2 14:4338Punt0–3
DENQ2 13:3033Turnover0–3
HOUQ2 12:361038Field goal0–6
DENQ2 7:11770Touchdown7–6
HOUQ2 4:52838Field goal7–9
DENQ2 1:5246Punt7–9
HOUQ2 1:023-1Punt7–9
HOUQ2 0:3939Field goal7–12
DENQ3 15:00513Punt7–12
HOUQ3 12:09524Field goal7–15
DENQ3 9:183-1Punt7–15
HOUQ3 6:5338Punt7–15
DENQ3 5:2839Punt7–15
HOUQ3 2:5337Punt7–15
DENQ3 1:19861Touchdown15–15
HOUQ4 12:28519Punt15–15
DENQ4 10:4332Punt15–15
HOUQ4 9:46418Punt15–15
DENQ4 7:1234Punt15–15
HOUQ4 6:0437Punt15–15
DENQ4 4:40830Punt15–15
HOUQ4 1:1434Punt15–15
DENQ4 0:50548Field goal18–15

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix18/3717321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins15614.10
Bo Nix33612.00
RJ Harvey252.50
Troy Franklin2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
RJ Harvey55511
Courtland Sutton16301
Troy Franklin410270
Adam Trautman22250
Pat Bryant23200
Michael Bandy11160
Tyler Badie2360
Evan Engram0300
J.K. Dobbins11-20

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills17/3013700
C.J. Stroud6/107900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb11343.10
Woody Marks10272.70
C.J. Stroud2126.00
Davis Mills273.50
British Brooks200.00
Jaylin Noel1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz68770
Nico Collins711750
Xavier Hutchinson35300
Christian Kirk48260
Jayden Higgins1140
Dare Ogunbowale1120
Harrison Bryant1220
Woody Marks0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.62