Closing spread
HOU -1.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.008
- 43.7%Success rate41.7%
- +0.097EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.2%
- -1.38CPOE-1.68
- 42.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 2.10Points / drive2.05
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. HOU are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 18/37 | 173 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 5 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| Troy Franklin | 4 | 10 | 27 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Pat Bryant | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Michael Bandy | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 17/30 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 6/10 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| British Brooks | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 7 | 11 | 75 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Jayden Higgins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62