Closing spread
DEN -8.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.059
- 41.9%Success rate41.0%
- -0.029EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.153
- 6.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- -3.29CPOE-0.31
- 36.9%Third-down rate34.4%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 1.45Points / drive1.51
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. DEN are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 22/41 | 131 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 11 | 61 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 12 | 36 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 5 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 14/25 | 157 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 16 | 107 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 17 | 83 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Trevor Siemian | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 8 | 86 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 10 | 40 | 1 |
| Jordan Norwood | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.11