2016 · Week 7

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

9·27

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -8.5

Total

40

Model margin

+2.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBroncos
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.059
  • 41.9%Success rate41.0%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.154EPA / rush-0.153
  • 6.9%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -3.29CPOE-0.31
  • 36.9%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.51
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. DEN are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9DEN @ HOU18–15DEN
2023 · W13DEN @ HOU17–22HOU
2022 · W2HOU @ DEN9–16DEN
2019 · W14DEN @ HOU38–24DEN
2018 · W9HOU @ DEN19–17HOU
2013 · W16DEN @ HOU37–13DEN
2012 · W3HOU @ DEN31–25HOU
2010 · W16HOU @ DEN23–24DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–DEN
HOUQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:3730Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:3338Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:12415Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:27633Field goal3–0
DENQ1 7:11414Punt3–0
HOUQ1 5:26939Field goal6–0
DENQ1 0:211185Touchdown6–7
HOUQ2 9:1039Punt6–7
DENQ2 7:29863Touchdown6–14
HOUQ2 4:04729Punt6–14
DENQ2 0:53321End of half6–14
DENQ3 15:0039Punt6–14
HOUQ3 13:59936Field goal9–14
DENQ3 9:0936Punt9–14
HOUQ3 7:33730Turnover9–14
DENQ3 4:37772Touchdown9–21
HOUQ3 0:4035Turnover9–21
DENQ4 14:56622Field goal9–24
HOUQ4 11:36521Punt9–24
DENQ4 9:20521Punt9–24
HOUQ4 6:25726Turnover on downs9–24
DENQ4 4:40620Field goal9–27
HOUQ4 1:57830Turnover on downs9–27
DENQ4 0:0300End of half9–27

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler22/4113100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue11635.70
Lamar Miller11615.50
Brock Osweiler3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins512360
C.J. Fiedorowicz57350
Will Fuller47220
Ryan Griffin25130
Jaelen Strong22100
Tyler Ervin1190
Lamar Miller3460
Alfred Blue0300

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian14/2515710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson161076.71
Devontae Booker17834.91
Trevor Siemian1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders48860
Demaryius Thomas610401
Jordan Norwood1280
Bennie Fowler1170
Devontae Booker1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.11