Closing spread
HOU -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play+0.113
- 43.9%Success rate48.0%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.271
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.106
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.9%
- -0.02CPOE+7.00
- 38.1%Third-down rate46.0%
- 59.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.89Points / drive2.26
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. DEN are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 17/30 | 290 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 25 | 105 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Walter | 3 | 6 | 73 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 2 | 4 | 72 | 1 |
| Lestar Jean | 1 | 1 | 46 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Keshawn Martin | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| James Casey | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/52 | 330 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 8 | 11 | 136 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 6 | 6 | 73 | 1 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 11 | 34 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 3 | 10 | 31 | 0 |
| Chris Gronkowski | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.08