2012 · Week 3

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

31·25

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

HOU -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBroncos
  • +0.069EPA / play+0.113
  • 43.9%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.271
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.106
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -0.02CPOE+7.00
  • 38.1%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 59.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.26
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. DEN are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9DEN @ HOU18–15DEN
2023 · W13DEN @ HOU17–22HOU
2022 · W2HOU @ DEN9–16DEN
2019 · W14DEN @ HOU38–24DEN
2018 · W9HOU @ DEN19–17HOU
2016 · W7HOU @ DEN9–27DEN
2013 · W16DEN @ HOU37–13DEN
2010 · W16HOU @ DEN23–24DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–DEN
DENQ1 15:00418Punt0–2
HOUQ1 13:261-6Safety0–2
DENQ1 13:20946Field goal0–5
HOUQ1 8:41389Touchdown7–5
DENQ1 6:28738Punt7–5
HOUQ1 2:581498Touchdown14–5
DENQ2 10:4734Punt14–5
HOUQ2 9:40257Touchdown21–5
DENQ2 8:54867Field goal21–8
HOUQ2 5:4431Punt21–8
DENQ2 4:4636Punt21–8
HOUQ2 3:31946Turnover21–8
DENQ2 0:34425Field goal21–11
HOUQ2 0:0100End of half21–11
HOUQ3 15:0034Punt21–11
DENQ3 13:543-2Punt21–11
HOUQ3 12:56819Field goal24–11
DENQ3 9:1172Punt24–11
HOUQ3 6:4337Punt24–11
DENQ3 5:0731Punt24–11
HOUQ3 3:52572Touchdown31–11
DENQ3 1:33742Punt31–11
HOUQ4 14:41825Turnover31–11
DENQ4 10:20249Touchdown31–18
HOUQ4 9:4930Punt31–18
DENQ4 8:081843Touchdown31–25
HOUQ4 3:00624Punt31–25
DENQ4 0:20236Turnover31–25

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub17/3029041

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster251054.20
Ben Tate8263.30
Keshawn Martin12121.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Walter36731
Andre Johnson24721
Lestar Jean11460
Garrett Graham24390
Owen Daniels35261
Keshawn Martin24200
James Casey33110
Arian Foster1131

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning26/5233020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee12363.00
Lance Ball7162.30
Ronnie Hillman273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker8111360
Brandon Stokley66731
Joel Dreessen25361
Demaryius Thomas311340
Jacob Tamme310310
Chris Gronkowski11110
Willis McGahee1260
Lance Ball1320
Ronnie Hillman1110
Matt Willis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.6%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.08