2019 · Week 14

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

38·24

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -8

Total

42.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapTexans
  • -0.054EPA / play+0.057
  • 40.3%Success rate45.6%
  • -0.019EPA / dropback+0.132
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -2.47CPOE+1.12
  • 32.0%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 50.1%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.47Points / drive2.18
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. HOU are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9DEN @ HOU18–15DEN
2023 · W13DEN @ HOU17–22HOU
2022 · W2HOU @ DEN9–16DEN
2018 · W9HOU @ DEN19–17HOU
2016 · W7HOU @ DEN9–27DEN
2013 · W16DEN @ HOU37–13DEN
2012 · W3HOU @ DEN31–25HOU
2010 · W16HOU @ DEN23–24DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00939Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:267102Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 7:27746Opp touchdown14–0
HOUQ1 3:33616Punt14–0
DENQ1 0:28880Touchdown21–0
HOUQ2 11:24744Field goal21–3
DENQ2 8:49857Field goal24–3
HOUQ2 3:0449Turnover on downs24–3
DENQ2 1:56825Touchdown31–3
HOUQ2 0:37322End of half31–3
DENQ3 15:00952Touchdown38–3
HOUQ3 9:15470Touchdown38–10
DENQ3 7:36850Turnover38–10
HOUQ3 2:371266Touchdown38–17
DENQ4 13:3456Punt38–17
HOUQ4 10:25823Turnover38–17
DENQ4 7:05520Punt38–17
HOUQ4 3:521479Touchdown38–24
DENQ4 0:2500Turnover38–24
HOUQ4 0:2310Turnover38–24
DENQ4 0:1200End of half38–24

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock22/2730931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay16513.21
Royce Freeman8243.00
Drew Lock3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Fant441131
Tim Patrick23500
DaeSean Hamilton24360
Courtland Sutton57340
Devontae Booker22240
Jeff Heuerman1181
Royce Freeman2281
Phillip Lindsay2240
Troy Fumagalli1130

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson28/5029212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde14735.20
Deshaun Watson6447.32
DeAndre Hopkins11212.00
Duke Johnson155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins7131201
Keke Coutee58680
Jordan Akins49490
Duke Johnson68400
Kenny Stills2280
Carlos Hyde2350
Darren Fells2420

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.8%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.90
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.97