Closing spread
HOU -8
Total
42.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.054EPA / play+0.057
- 40.3%Success rate45.6%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.132
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- -2.47CPOE+1.12
- 32.0%Third-down rate43.7%
- 50.1%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.47Points / drive2.18
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. HOU are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 22/27 | 309 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 4 | 4 | 113 | 1 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 28/50 | 292 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 14 | 73 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 13 | 120 | 1 |
| Keke Coutee | 5 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 4 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.97