2013 · Week 16

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

37·13

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DEN -9

Total

53

Model margin

-3.4est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapTexans
  • +0.205EPA / play-0.109
  • 50.2%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.346EPA / dropback-0.116
  • -0.029EPA / rush-0.099
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +6.21CPOE-3.08
  • 47.1%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 81.1%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 2.85Points / drive1.07
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. HOU are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9DEN @ HOU18–15DEN
2023 · W13DEN @ HOU17–22HOU
2022 · W2HOU @ DEN9–16DEN
2019 · W14DEN @ HOU38–24DEN
2018 · W9HOU @ DEN19–17HOU
2016 · W7HOU @ DEN9–27DEN
2012 · W3HOU @ DEN31–25HOU
2010 · W16HOU @ DEN23–24DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:281288Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 8:5033Punt3–0
DENQ1 7:38654Turnover on downs3–0
HOUQ1 5:06647Field goal3–3
DENQ1 2:02564Touchdown10–3
HOUQ2 14:54616Punt10–3
DENQ2 11:36422Punt10–3
HOUQ2 9:51610Field goal10–6
DENQ2 6:061384Field goal13–6
HOUQ2 0:5630Punt13–6
DENQ2 0:26343Field goal16–6
DENQ3 15:0035Punt16–6
HOUQ3 13:47974Touchdown16–13
DENQ3 10:333-3Punt16–13
HOUQ3 9:40616Punt16–13
DENQ3 7:0534Punt16–13
HOUQ3 6:06620Punt16–13
DENQ3 2:45632Punt16–13
HOUQ3 0:21311Turnover16–13
DENQ4 14:11228Touchdown23–13
HOUQ4 13:2669Punt23–13
DENQ4 10:00955Touchdown30–13
HOUQ4 6:5746Punt30–13
DENQ4 5:16429Touchdown37–13
HOUQ4 4:28419Turnover37–13
DENQ4 3:1336Punt37–13
HOUQ4 1:0422End of half37–13

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning32/5140040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno11766.90
Montee Ball4328.00
Ronnie Hillman362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker10171312
Demaryius Thomas8141231
Julius Thomas68781
Knowshon Moreno24260
Jacob Tamme33220
Andre Caldwell23120
Virgil Green1180
Montee Ball0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub18/3717612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deji Karim8303.80
Dennis Johnson12292.40
Jonathan Grimes5234.60
Matt Schaub155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ryan Griffin55660
Andre Johnson413630
Keshawn Martin46351
DeAndre Hopkins1480
Dennis Johnson2410
Lestar Jean0100
Deji Karim11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -92.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.0%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-3.39