Closing spread
DEN -9
Total
53
Model margin
-3.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.205EPA / play-0.109
- 50.2%Success rate40.7%
- +0.346EPA / dropback-0.116
- -0.029EPA / rush-0.099
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.7%
- +6.21CPOE-3.08
- 47.1%Third-down rate36.4%
- 81.1%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 2.85Points / drive1.07
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. HOU are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 32/51 | 400 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 11 | 76 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 10 | 17 | 131 | 2 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 14 | 123 | 1 |
| Julius Thomas | 6 | 8 | 78 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 18/37 | 176 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deji Karim | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dennis Johnson | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Griffin | 5 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 13 | 63 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Dennis Johnson | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Lestar Jean | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.0%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-3.39