2018 · Week 9

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

19·17

Broncos

Denver

QB Case Keenum

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DEN -1

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBroncos
  • +0.032EPA / play-0.020
  • 44.3%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback-0.009
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.040
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +4.58CPOE-0.98
  • 36.4%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.60
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. DEN are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9DEN @ HOU18–15DEN
2023 · W13DEN @ HOU17–22HOU
2022 · W2HOU @ DEN9–16DEN
2019 · W14DEN @ HOU38–24DEN
2016 · W7HOU @ DEN9–27DEN
2013 · W16DEN @ HOU37–13DEN
2012 · W3HOU @ DEN31–25HOU
2010 · W16HOU @ DEN23–24DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–DEN
HOUQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 10:5331Punt7–0
HOUQ1 9:273-9Punt7–0
DENQ1 7:54735Field goal7–3
HOUQ1 4:421260Turnover on downs7–3
DENQ2 13:3723Turnover7–3
HOUQ2 12:24322Touchdown13–3
DENQ2 11:0538Punt13–3
HOUQ2 9:3539Punt13–3
DENQ2 8:03582Touchdown13–10
HOUQ2 5:33613Punt13–10
DENQ2 1:42836Missed field goal13–10
HOUQ2 0:18220Field goal16–10
DENQ3 15:0038Punt16–10
HOUQ3 13:2237Punt16–10
DENQ3 11:571286Touchdown16–17
HOUQ3 5:571251Field goal19–17
DENQ4 14:063-5Punt19–17
HOUQ4 11:5837Punt19–17
DENQ4 10:15626Punt19–17
HOUQ4 7:10735Punt19–17
DENQ4 3:291468Missed field goal19–17

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson17/2421320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue15392.60
Deshaun Watson6386.30
Lamar Miller12211.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins10121051
Demaryius Thomas33610
Lamar Miller22270
Ryan Griffin12130
Jordan Akins0300

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum26/4229010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay17603.50
Devontae Booker3155.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeff Heuerman1011831
Courtland Sutton35570
Emmanuel Sanders69470
Matt LaCosse11440
Phillip Lindsay23240
Tim Patrick14170
Devontae Booker2490

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.47