Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play-0.020
- 44.3%Success rate43.4%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.040
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.9%
- +4.58CPOE-0.98
- 36.4%Third-down rate33.1%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.91Points / drive1.60
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. DEN are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 17/24 | 213 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 15 | 39 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10 | 12 | 105 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 26/42 | 290 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Heuerman | 10 | 11 | 83 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.97
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.47