Closing spread
DEN -10.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.167EPA / play-0.077
- 38.0%Success rate39.4%
- -0.147EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.204EPA / rush-0.124
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- -4.69CPOE-1.65
- 30.1%Third-down rate29.1%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 1.17Points / drive1.34
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. DEN are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 19/38 | 177 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 4 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/31 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 10 | 47 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 11 | 122 | 0 |
| Tyrie Cleveland | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Montrell Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.80