2022 · Week 2

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

9·16

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

DEN -10.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.8est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapBroncos
  • -0.167EPA / play-0.077
  • 38.0%Success rate39.4%
  • -0.147EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.204EPA / rush-0.124
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -4.69CPOE-1.65
  • 30.1%Third-down rate29.1%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 1.17Points / drive1.34
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. DEN are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9DEN @ HOU18–15DEN
2023 · W13DEN @ HOU17–22HOU
2019 · W14DEN @ HOU38–24DEN
2018 · W9HOU @ DEN19–17HOU
2016 · W7HOU @ DEN9–27DEN
2013 · W16DEN @ HOU37–13DEN
2012 · W3HOU @ DEN31–25HOU
2010 · W16HOU @ DEN23–24DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–DEN
HOUQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:29734Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:46616Punt0–0
DENQ1 7:48831Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 5:30949Field goal3–3
DENQ1 2:191016Punt3–3
HOUQ2 12:521064Field goal6–3
DENQ2 7:20514Punt6–3
HOUQ2 5:383-2Punt6–3
DENQ2 4:04983Field goal6–6
HOUQ2 0:2000End of half6–6
DENQ3 15:0034Turnover6–6
HOUQ3 13:421134Field goal9–6
DENQ3 8:33844Punt9–6
HOUQ3 3:0234Punt9–6
DENQ3 1:33777Touchdown9–13
HOUQ4 12:37625Punt9–13
DENQ4 9:481149Field goal9–16
HOUQ4 3:36638Turnover on downs9–16
DENQ4 1:223-1Punt9–16
HOUQ4 0:534-1Turnover on downs9–16
DENQ4 0:1300End of half9–16

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills19/3817700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce15694.60
Jeff Driskel11010.00
Davis Mills210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins49580
Brandin Cooks410540
Pharaoh Brown35240
Chris Moore24140
Rex Burkhead2390
Dameon Pierce1180
O.J. Howard1170
Brevin Jordan2430

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson14/3121911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams15755.00
Melvin Gordon10474.70
Montrell Washington11919.00
Courtland Sutton155.00
Russell Wilson231.50
Jerry Jeudy111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton7111220
Tyrie Cleveland23280
Eric Saubert12221
Kendall Hinton11200
Jerry Jeudy13110
Javonte Williams14100
Melvin Gordon1160
Albert Okwuegbunam0200
Montrell Washington0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.80