Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.023
- 42.3%Success rate41.4%
- -0.005EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- +3.74CPOE-1.53
- 36.8%Third-down rate37.7%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.87Points / drive1.91
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. HOU are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/26 | 186 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 16/27 | 274 | 1 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 1/1 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 9 | 12 | 191 | 1 |
| Brevin Jordan | 3 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.14