2023 · Week 13

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

17·22

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapTexans
  • -0.046EPA / play-0.023
  • 42.3%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.005EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.164
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +3.74CPOE-1.53
  • 36.8%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.91
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 7–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. HOU are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9DEN @ HOU18–15DEN
2022 · W2HOU @ DEN9–16DEN
2019 · W14DEN @ HOU38–24DEN
2018 · W9HOU @ DEN19–17HOU
2016 · W7HOU @ DEN9–27DEN
2013 · W16DEN @ HOU37–13DEN
2012 · W3HOU @ DEN31–25HOU
2010 · W16HOU @ DEN23–24DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:0837Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:14532Field goal0–3
DENQ1 10:113-4Punt0–3
HOUQ1 8:111074Touchdown0–10
DENQ1 3:49420Punt0–10
HOUQ1 1:06779Field goal0–13
DENQ2 12:54525Punt0–13
HOUQ2 9:55646Punt0–13
DENQ2 6:331256Field goal3–13
HOUQ2 1:24419Punt3–13
DENQ2 0:1400End of half3–13
DENQ3 15:003-6Punt3–13
HOUQ3 12:53745Field goal3–16
DENQ3 8:5137Punt3–16
HOUQ3 7:0030Punt3–16
DENQ3 6:07353Touchdown10–16
HOUQ3 4:4763Punt10–16
DENQ3 1:0410Turnover10–16
HOUQ3 0:59421Touchdown10–22
DENQ4 14:16560Touchdown17–22
HOUQ4 12:043-7Punt17–22
DENQ4 10:2824Turnover17–22
HOUQ4 9:33833Punt17–22
DENQ4 4:361561Turnover17–22
HOUQ4 0:0900End of half17–22

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/2618613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams13463.50
Russell Wilson10444.41
Jaleel McLaughlin4153.80
Marvin Mims Jr.188.00
Samaje Perine111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton27771
Jerry Jeudy34510
Javonte Williams33240
Lil'Jordan Humphrey11120
Adam Trautman1260
Jaleel McLaughlin2260
Samaje Perine2250
Marvin Mims Jr.1250
Lucas Krull0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud16/2727410
Davis Mills1/11800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce15412.71
Devin Singletary8364.50
C.J. Stroud6111.80
Dare Ogunbowale111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins9121911
Brevin Jordan35640
Dare Ogunbowale11140
John Metchie III1390
Eric Saubert1150
Devin Singletary1140
Noah Brown0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.14