2010 · Week 16

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

31·26

Raiders

Oakland

QB Jason Campbell

Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

46

Model margin

+1.3est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. OAK are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5LV @ IND6–40IND
2023 · W17LV @ IND20–23IND
2022 · W10IND @ LV25–20IND
2021 · W17LV @ IND23–20RAIDERS
2020 · W14IND @ LV44–27IND
2019 · W4OAK @ IND31–24RAIDERS
2018 · W8IND @ OAK42–28IND
2016 · W16IND @ OAK25–33RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–OAK
LVQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 14:4835Punt0–7
LVQ1 13:5536Punt0–7
INDQ1 12:22519Punt0–7
LVQ1 9:4331Punt0–7
INDQ1 8:16657Touchdown7–7
LVQ1 6:0031Punt7–7
INDQ1 4:531050Field goal10–7
LVQ2 14:51834Field goal10–10
INDQ2 9:31314Punt10–10
LVQ2 7:281062Field goal10–13
INDQ2 1:551058Touchdown17–13
LVQ2 0:36337Missed field goal17–13
INDQ3 15:00215Turnover17–13
LVQ3 14:1638Punt17–13
INDQ3 12:19417Punt17–13
LVQ3 10:43523Field goal17–16
INDQ3 7:5346Punt17–16
LVQ3 6:4541Punt17–16
INDQ3 4:47520Touchdown24–16
LVQ3 2:5534Punt24–16
INDQ3 1:2547Turnover24–16
LVQ4 14:45410Field goal24–19
INDQ4 12:59968Touchdown31–19
LVQ4 7:3848Turnover on downs31–19
INDQ4 6:3731Punt31–19
LVQ4 5:021395Touchdown31–26
INDQ4 1:51335End of half31–26

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning16/3017932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dominic Rhodes17985.80
Joseph Addai12453.81
Donald Brown6284.70
Peyton Manning3258.30
Pierre Garcon1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacob Tamme79781
Reggie Wayne36400
Pierre Garcon38351
Blair White25201
Joseph Addai1160
Dominic Rhodes0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.29

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.