Closing spread
IND -1
Total
46
Model margin
+1.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. OAK are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 16/30 | 179 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 17 | 98 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Tamme | 7 | 9 | 78 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 8 | 35 | 1 |
| Blair White | 2 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.