Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
52
Model margin
+1.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. OAK are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 19/29 | 288 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 9 | 105 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Erik Swoope | 1 | 1 | 45 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 2 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.76
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.