Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
52
Model margin
+1.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Colts
- OutChris CarterLBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableJoe ReitzTBack· Full
- QuestionableRashaan MelvinCBKnee· Full
Raiders
- OutKarl JosephSToe· DNP
- OutShilique CalhounLBKnee· DNP
- OutStacy McGeeDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAmari CooperWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDan WilliamsDTFoot· Limited
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMalcolm SmithLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMichael CrabtreeWRFinger· Limited
- QuestionablePerry RileyLBHamstring· Limited
Win probability
- Raiders
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. OAK are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:17 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 10:55 | 5 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:27 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:03 | 2 | 13 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:09 | 15 | 67 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q2 14:57 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:49 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| IND | Q2 5:50 | 10 | 46 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| LV | Q2 1:13 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–19 |
| IND | Q2 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–19 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–26 |
| IND | Q3 10:48 | 2 | 13 | Turnover | 7–26 |
| LV | Q3 10:13 | 3 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–33 |
| IND | Q3 8:40 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–33 |
| LV | Q3 5:18 | 12 | 62 | Punt | 14–33 |
| IND | Q4 13:12 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–33 |
| LV | Q4 12:13 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 14–33 |
| IND | Q4 10:16 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 22–33 |
| LV | Q4 7:40 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 22–33 |
| IND | Q4 3:48 | 4 | 40 | Field goal | 25–33 |
| LV | Q4 2:33 | 3 | 21 | End of half | 25–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 19/29 | 288 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 9 | 105 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Erik Swoope | 1 | 1 | 45 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 2 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.76
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.