Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play-0.025
- 41.5%Success rate41.5%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.108
- 5.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- -3.79CPOE-3.92
- 35.2%Third-down rate34.4%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.66Points / drive1.78
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. IND are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 30/47 | 299 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamir White | 20 | 71 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 13 | 21 | 126 | 2 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 15/23 | 224 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 96 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Trey Sermon | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 1 | 58 | 1 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.04