2023 · Week 17

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Aidan O'Connell

20·23

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Gardner Minshew

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapColts
  • -0.086EPA / play-0.025
  • 41.5%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.108
  • 5.9%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -3.79CPOE-3.92
  • 35.2%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.66Points / drive1.78
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. IND are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5LV @ IND6–40IND
2022 · W10IND @ LV25–20IND
2021 · W17LV @ IND23–20RAIDERS
2020 · W14IND @ LV44–27IND
2019 · W4OAK @ IND31–24RAIDERS
2018 · W8IND @ OAK42–28IND
2016 · W16IND @ OAK25–33RAIDERS
2013 · W1OAK @ IND17–21IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–IND
INDQ1 15:00675Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 12:111159Field goal3–7
INDQ1 5:573-9Punt3–7
LVQ1 4:57310Punt3–7
INDQ1 3:4439Punt3–7
LVQ1 2:03522Punt3–7
INDQ2 15:00730Punt3–7
LVQ2 11:21828Punt3–7
INDQ2 7:05690Touchdown3–14
LVQ2 3:53633Punt3–14
INDQ2 0:54311End of half3–14
LVQ3 15:001565Touchdown10–14
INDQ3 6:311265Field goal10–17
LVQ3 1:17818Punt10–17
INDQ4 13:14861Field goal10–20
LVQ4 7:341060Field goal13–20
INDQ4 4:35718Field goal13–23
LVQ4 3:11975Touchdown20–23
INDQ4 0:4300End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell30/4729920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zamir White20713.50
Brandon Bolden263.00
Ameer Abdullah144.00
Aidan O'Connell231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams13211262
Jakobi Meyers610560
Tre Tucker25360
Zamir White56350
Austin Hooper33280
Ameer Abdullah11180

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew15/2322410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor21964.61
Trey Sermon5326.40
Gardner Minshew231.50
Tyler Goodson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce11581
Josh Downs22530
Michael Pittman57460
Will Mallory11190
Mo Alie-Cox23180
Kylen Granson13130
Trey Sermon2290
Jonathan Taylor1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.04