Closing spread
LV -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.7est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play+0.009
- 40.3%Success rate43.4%
- -0.139EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.9%
- -1.42CPOE-2.03
- 33.3%Third-down rate39.7%
- 45.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.33Points / drive2.10
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. LV are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/28 | 222 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 22 | 147 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parris Campbell | 7 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Kylen Granson | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/38 | 248 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 21 | 78 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 9 | 14 | 126 | 1 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 6 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.72