2022 · Week 10

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Ryan

25·20

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -4.5

Total

41

Model margin

+1.7est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapRaiders
  • -0.154EPA / play+0.009
  • 40.3%Success rate43.4%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback+0.057
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -1.42CPOE-2.03
  • 33.3%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 45.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.10
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. LV are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5LV @ IND6–40IND
2023 · W17LV @ IND20–23IND
2021 · W17LV @ IND23–20RAIDERS
2020 · W14IND @ LV44–27IND
2019 · W4OAK @ IND31–24RAIDERS
2018 · W8IND @ OAK42–28IND
2016 · W16IND @ OAK25–33RAIDERS
2013 · W1OAK @ IND17–21IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–LV
LVQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:44310Punt0–0
LVQ1 12:145-4Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:511170Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 3:1734Punt7–0
INDQ1 2:241055Field goal10–0
LVQ2 12:38828Turnover on downs10–0
INDQ2 8:00431Turnover10–0
LVQ2 6:381289Touchdown10–7
INDQ2 0:58740Field goal13–7
INDQ3 15:001045Missed field goal13–7
LVQ3 9:021367Touchdown13–14
INDQ3 1:51270Touchdown19–14
LVQ3 1:0148Punt19–14
INDQ4 13:5933Punt19–14
LVQ4 12:32348Touchdown19–20
INDQ4 11:36511Punt19–20
LVQ4 9:403-5Punt19–20
INDQ4 8:00582Touchdown25–20
LVQ4 5:071569Turnover on downs25–20
INDQ4 0:4700End of half25–20

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan21/2822210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor221476.71
Matt Ryan4389.51
Jordan Wilkins3186.00
Zack Moss144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parris Campbell79761
Kylen Granson44570
Michael Pittman79530
Keke Coutee11200
Jonathan Taylor22160
Alec Pierce0200

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr24/3824820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs21783.71
Mack Hollins100.00
Zamir White2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams9141261
Foster Moreau34431
Ameer Abdullah44330
Josh Jacobs68280
Mack Hollins26180
Keelan Cole0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.72