2020 · Week 14

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

44·27

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

IND -2.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.066
  • 46.8%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.067
  • 11.3%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.03CPOE+2.18
  • 39.7%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
  • 2.35Points / drive2.49
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. LV are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5LV @ IND6–40IND
2023 · W17LV @ IND20–23IND
2022 · W10IND @ LV25–20IND
2021 · W17LV @ IND23–20RAIDERS
2019 · W4OAK @ IND31–24RAIDERS
2018 · W8IND @ OAK42–28IND
2016 · W16IND @ OAK25–33RAIDERS
2013 · W1OAK @ IND17–21IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–LV
INDQ1 15:001069Field goal3–0
LVQ1 8:5232Punt3–0
INDQ1 7:491163Touchdown10–0
LVQ1 2:59576Touchdown10–7
INDQ1 0:09426Punt10–7
LVQ2 14:01878Touchdown10–14
INDQ2 10:38368Touchdown17–14
LVQ2 9:03947Turnover17–14
INDQ2 3:301372Field goal20–14
LVQ3 15:001268Field goal20–17
INDQ3 9:41575Touchdown27–17
LVQ3 7:271370Field goal27–20
INDQ3 0:131071Touchdown34–20
LVQ4 9:2310Turnover34–20
INDQ4 9:15314Field goal37–20
LVQ4 6:50423Opp touchdown44–20
LVQ4 5:221360Touchdown44–27
INDQ4 0:5500End of half44–27

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers19/2824420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor201507.52
Nyheim Hines7588.30
Jordan Wilkins133.00
Michael Pittman133.00
Jacoby Brissett2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton57862
Jack Doyle33440
Michael Pittman25420
Zach Pascal12270
Nyheim Hines44170
Jonathan Taylor22150
Mo Alie-Cox1190
Jordan Wilkins1240
Marcus Johnson0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr31/4531622
Zay Jones1/12900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs13493.80
Derek Carr3124.01
Jalen Richard2105.00
Devontae Booker482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor591001
Darren Waller710750
Foster Moreau12471
Hunter Renfrow57380
Jalen Richard45310
Josh Jacobs35250
Henry Ruggs III33180
Devontae Booker33110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.10