Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.066
- 46.8%Success rate47.4%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.067
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.03CPOE+2.18
- 39.7%Third-down rate45.5%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
- 2.35Points / drive2.49
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. LV are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 19/28 | 244 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 20 | 150 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Nyheim Hines | 7 | 58 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 7 | 86 | 2 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 31/45 | 316 | 2 | 2 |
| Zay Jones | 1/1 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jalen Richard | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 9 | 100 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 7 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 2 | 47 | 1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.10