2021 · Week 17

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

23·20

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -8.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapColts
  • -0.001EPA / play+0.060
  • 45.2%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.161EPA / rush+0.065
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.92CPOE-2.41
  • 36.8%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.35
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. IND are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5LV @ IND6–40IND
2023 · W17LV @ IND20–23IND
2022 · W10IND @ LV25–20IND
2020 · W14IND @ LV44–27IND
2019 · W4OAK @ IND31–24RAIDERS
2018 · W8IND @ OAK42–28IND
2016 · W16IND @ OAK25–33RAIDERS
2013 · W1OAK @ IND17–21IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–IND
LVQ1 15:001275Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 7:5130Punt7–0
LVQ1 6:1737Turnover7–0
INDQ1 4:38510Punt7–0
LVQ1 2:4266Field goal10–0
INDQ2 14:12757Field goal10–3
LVQ2 10:0735Punt10–3
INDQ2 8:3041Punt10–3
LVQ2 6:17841Field goal13–3
INDQ2 1:471060Touchdown13–10
LVQ2 0:0100End of half13–10
INDQ3 15:00670Touchdown13–17
LVQ3 11:28624Turnover13–17
INDQ3 7:5059Punt13–17
LVQ3 4:27946Punt13–17
INDQ3 0:4533Punt13–17
LVQ4 14:39662Touchdown20–17
INDQ4 11:181552Field goal20–20
LVQ4 1:56960Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr24/3125512
Marcus Mariota0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs16633.91
Marcus Mariota3165.30
Jalen Richard144.00
Peyton Barber630.50
Zay Jones1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones8101200
Hunter Renfrow79761
Jalen Richard11190
Josh Jacobs44170
Peyton Barber2290
Foster Moreau1190
DeSean Jackson1350
Bryan Edwards0200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz16/2714810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor201085.41
Carson Wentz3103.30
Nyheim Hines242.00
Deon Jackson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman66470
T.Y. Hilton13451
Mo Alie-Cox35280
Nyheim Hines44140
Zach Pascal1280
Jonathan Taylor1260
Ashton Dulin0100
Dezmon Patmon0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

1.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.11