Closing spread
IND -8.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.060
- 45.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.161EPA / rush+0.065
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.92CPOE-2.41
- 36.8%Third-down rate41.9%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.87Points / drive2.35
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. IND are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/31 | 255 | 1 | 2 |
| Marcus Mariota | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 8 | 10 | 120 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 7 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 16/27 | 148 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 20 | 108 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 6 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 3 | 45 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dezmon Patmon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.11