2025 · Week 5

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

6·40

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -7

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapColts
  • -0.192EPA / play+0.083
  • 38.6%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.304EPA / rush+0.052
  • 6.7%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -0.91CPOE+0.62
  • 34.1%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.25Points / drive2.74
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 9–5 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. IND are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17LV @ IND20–23IND
2022 · W10IND @ LV25–20IND
2021 · W17LV @ IND23–20RAIDERS
2020 · W14IND @ LV44–27IND
2019 · W4OAK @ IND31–24RAIDERS
2018 · W8IND @ OAK42–28IND
2016 · W16IND @ OAK25–33RAIDERS
2013 · W1OAK @ IND17–21IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–IND
INDQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:111580Field goal3–0
INDQ1 3:211493Touchdown3–7
LVQ2 11:33516Punt3–7
INDQ2 9:2953Touchdown3–14
LVQ2 7:56949Turnover3–14
INDQ2 3:531663Touchdown3–20
LVQ2 0:15226Missed field goal3–20
LVQ3 15:00412Punt3–20
INDQ3 12:571268Touchdown3–26
LVQ3 6:5424Turnover3–26
INDQ3 6:1926Touchdown3–32
LVQ3 5:4949Turnover on downs3–32
INDQ3 3:47344Touchdown3–40
LVQ3 2:271430Field goal6–40
INDQ4 11:39731Punt6–40
LVQ4 6:451370End of half6–40

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith25/3622802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty14674.80
Raheem Mostert7223.10
Tre Tucker199.00
Geno Smith382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre Tucker46620
Ashton Jeanty57420
Albert Okwuegbunam56360
Jakobi Meyers46320
Jack Bech35270
Ian Thomas33200
Alex Bachman1190
Dont'e Thornton Jr.0200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones20/2921220
Anthony Richardson1/2900
Tyler Warren0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor17663.93
DJ Giddens5224.40
Ameer Abdullah263.01
Daniel Jones122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ashton Dulin25550
Josh Downs68540
Tyler Warren44441
Michael Pittman56391
Jonathan Taylor34200
Anthony Richardson1190
Adonai Mitchell0100
DJ Giddens0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

4.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.87