Closing spread
IND -7
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play+0.083
- 38.6%Success rate46.6%
- -0.130EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.304EPA / rush+0.052
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.1%
- -0.91CPOE+0.62
- 34.1%Third-down rate43.0%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.25Points / drive2.74
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. IND are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 25/36 | 228 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Jack Bech | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Alex Bachman | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 20/29 | 212 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 1/2 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 3 |
| DJ Giddens | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 6 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Tyler Warren | 4 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Giddens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.87