Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDwayne HarrisWRAnkle· DNP
- OutGabe JacksonGKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJordan DeveyCGroin· Limited
- QuestionableTrenton BrownTAnkle· Full
Colts
- OutDarius LeonardLBConcussion· DNP
- OutMalik HookerSKnee· DNP
- OutTyquan LewisDTAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulT.Y. HiltonWRQuadricep· DNP
- QuestionableAl-Quadin MuhammadDENeck· Full
- QuestionableJabaal SheardDEKnee· Limited
- QuestionablePierre DesirCBHamstring· Limited
- DNPAnthony CastonzoTNot Injury Related
- DNPClayton GeathersSNot Injury Related
- DNPDenico AutryDTNot Injury Related
- DNPJustin HoustonLBNot Injury Related
Win probability
- Colts
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. IND are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:09 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:13 | 1 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:03 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:42 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:36 | 3 | 22 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LV | Q1 5:22 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| IND | Q2 14:13 | 14 | 47 | Field goal | 21–10 |
| LV | Q2 7:33 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–10 |
| IND | Q2 6:28 | 8 | 59 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| LV | Q2 3:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–10 |
| IND | Q2 2:03 | 9 | 24 | Missed field goal | 21–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:32 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 21–10 |
| IND | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–10 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 21–10 |
| LV | Q3 12:26 | 15 | 82 | Field goal | 24–10 |
| IND | Q3 3:14 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LV | Q3 0:23 | 9 | 38 | Punt | 24–10 |
| IND | Q4 10:21 | 15 | 75 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| LV | Q4 5:27 | 4 | 29 | Punt | 24–17 |
| IND | Q4 2:28 | 3 | 10 | Opp touchdown | 31–17 |
| IND | Q4 2:09 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 31–24 |
| LV | Q4 1:10 | 2 | 12 | End of half | 31–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 24/46 | 265 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Pascal | 4 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Chester Rogers | 3 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 6 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 5 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 8 | 22 | 1 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Deon Cain | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.