Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. IND are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 24/46 | 265 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Pascal | 4 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Chester Rogers | 3 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 6 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 5 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 8 | 22 | 1 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Deon Cain | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.