Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
51
Model margin
+0.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. OAK are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 22/31 | 239 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 25 | 132 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Nyheim Hines | 11 | 78 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Doyle | 6 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 6 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.