Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
51
Model margin
+0.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Colts
- OutErik SwoopeTEKnee· DNP
- OutJihad WardDTAnkle· DNP
- OutMalik HookerSHip· DNP
- OutRobert TurbinRBShoulder· DNP
- OutRyan GrantWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAdam VinatieriKright Groin· Full
- QuestionableClayton GeathersSNeck· DNP
- QuestionableJabaal SheardDEAbdomen· Full
- QuestionableMarlon MackRBAnkle· Full
- QuestionableZach PascalWRHead· Limited
- DNPDarius LeonardLBAnkle
Raiders
- QuestionableDaryl WorleyCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGKnee· Limited
- LimitedBruce IrvinDEPectoral
- LimitedFadol BrownDEHip
- LimitedGabe JacksonGPectoral
- LimitedJon FelicianoGRibs
- LimitedKolton MillerTKnee
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Win probability
- Raiders
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. OAK are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:21 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 7:17 | 13 | 55 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 15:00 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| IND | Q2 11:56 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 10:41 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| IND | Q2 6:13 | 16 | 78 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| LV | Q2 0:26 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 13–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| IND | Q3 9:49 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| LV | Q3 7:39 | 11 | 85 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| IND | Q3 1:01 | 14 | 90 | Touchdown | 28–28 |
| LV | Q4 10:47 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 28–28 |
| IND | Q4 9:20 | 8 | 62 | Touchdown | 35–28 |
| LV | Q4 5:28 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 35–28 |
| IND | Q4 5:16 | 5 | 18 | Touchdown | 42–28 |
| LV | Q4 2:55 | 7 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 42–28 |
| IND | Q4 1:55 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 42–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 22/31 | 239 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 25 | 132 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Nyheim Hines | 11 | 78 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Doyle | 6 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 6 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.84
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.