Closing spread
PHI -14
Total
44
Model margin
+3.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play+0.078
- 42.3%Success rate44.2%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.121EPA / rush+0.029
- 9.3%Explosive rate11.1%
- -2.30CPOE+4.09
- 34.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.25Points / drive1.97
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 10–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Webb | 17/26 | 195 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 22 | 118 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Joe Webb | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 7 | 8 | 100 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 25/43 | 263 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 8 | 63 | 7.9 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 10 | 12 | 97 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 12 | 32 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.11
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.16