2010 · Week 16

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Joe Webb

24·14

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -14

Total

44

Model margin

+3.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapEagles
  • -0.112EPA / play+0.078
  • 42.3%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.121EPA / rush+0.029
  • 9.3%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -2.30CPOE+4.09
  • 34.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.97
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 10–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.5 points. PHI are 9-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7PHI @ MIN28–22PHI
2023 · W2MIN @ PHI28–34PHI
2022 · W2MIN @ PHI7–24PHI
2019 · W6PHI @ MIN20–38MIN
2018 · W5MIN @ PHI23–21MIN
2017 · playoffsMIN @ PHI7–38PHI
2016 · W7MIN @ PHI10–21PHI
2013 · W15PHI @ MIN30–48MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00410Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:3934Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:16826Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 7:421247Punt0–7
PHIQ1 1:37725Punt0–7
MINQ2 12:4533Punt0–7
PHIQ2 11:44513Turnover0–7
MINQ2 10:03345Turnover0–7
PHIQ2 8:3330Punt0–7
MINQ2 7:09835Punt0–7
PHIQ2 2:20740Opp touchdown7–7
PHIQ2 0:44536Missed field goal7–7
MINQ3 15:00659Field goal10–7
PHIQ3 12:2432Punt10–7
MINQ3 10:44761Touchdown17–7
PHIQ3 7:031061Turnover17–7
MINQ3 2:39412Punt17–7
PHIQ3 0:141253Touchdown17–14
MINQ4 10:17960Touchdown24–14
PHIQ4 6:43634Punt24–14
MINQ4 4:23611Punt24–14
PHIQ4 1:06431End of half24–14

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Webb17/2619500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson221185.41
Joe Webb6315.21
Percy Harvin263.00
Toby Gerhart166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin781000
Visanthe Shiancoe35320
Bernard Berrian24160
Sidney Rice15160
Adrian Peterson11110
Lorenzo Booker1160
Jimmy Kleinsasser1130

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick25/4326311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick8637.91
LeSean McCoy13443.40
DeSean Jackson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek1012970
Jeremy Maclin68740
LeSean McCoy45410
DeSean Jackson212320
Jason Avant24160
Clay Harbor1131

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.74%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.11
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.16