Closing spread
GB -3
Total
43
Model margin
+3.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play+0.076
- 44.3%Success rate45.9%
- +0.081EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.117
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- +2.60CPOE+5.31
- 37.0%Third-down rate41.3%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.81Points / drive1.91
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. GB are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/33 | 301 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 6 | 132 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 9 | 93 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/37 | 404 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 18 | 39 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Dimitri Nance | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 7 | 10 | 142 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 7 | 124 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| James Jones | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.83