2010 · Week 16

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

17·45

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

43

Model margin

+3.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapPackers
  • -0.006EPA / play+0.076
  • 44.3%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.081EPA / dropback+0.186
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.117
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +2.60CPOE+5.31
  • 37.0%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.91
  • 4.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 48.5 points. GB are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11GB @ NYG27–20GB
2023 · W14GB @ NYG22–24NYG
2022 · W5NYG @ GB27–22NYG
2019 · W13GB @ NYG31–13GB
2016 · playoffsNYG @ GB13–38GB
2016 · W5NYG @ GB16–23GB
2013 · W11GB @ NYG13–27NYG
2012 · W12GB @ NYG10–38NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–GB
GBQ1 15:00612Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:13734Punt0–6
GBQ1 8:04180Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 7:533-1Turnover0–7
GBQ1 6:461044Touchdown0–14
NYGQ1 1:4732Punt0–14
GBQ1 0:34514Punt0–14
NYGQ2 14:04565Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 11:401272Turnover13–14
NYGQ2 5:25185Touchdown14–14
GBQ2 5:13664Touchdown14–21
NYGQ2 1:54620Punt14–21
GBQ2 0:3013End of half14–21
NYGQ3 15:0041Turnover14–21
GBQ3 13:23738Field goal14–24
NYGQ3 9:56546Field goal17–24
GBQ3 7:10470Touchdown17–31
NYGQ3 4:44546Turnover17–31
GBQ3 2:1536Punt17–31
NYGQ4 14:5133Punt17–31
GBQ4 13:47510Punt17–31
NYGQ4 11:04423Turnover17–31
GBQ4 9:47546Touchdown17–38
NYGQ4 6:5823Turnover17–38
GBQ4 6:15649Touchdown17–45
NYGQ4 4:20741Turnover17–45
GBQ4 2:1037Punt17–45
NYGQ4 0:24318End of half17–45

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning17/3330124

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs8475.90
Ahmad Bradshaw12312.60
Eli Manning11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mario Manningham461321
Hakeem Nicks49931
Ahmad Bradshaw56410
D.J. Ware24240
Derek Hagan24110
Kevin Boss0300

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/3740440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jackson18392.20
Dimitri Nance9323.60
Aaron Rodgers22613.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings7101420
Jordy Nelson471241
Donald Driver35440
James Jones47361
Tom Crabtree11210
Andrew Quarless11160
Brandon Jackson12100
Donald Lee2241

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.83