Closing spread
SD -9
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutAntonio GatesTEToe· DNP
- OutStephen CooperLBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulMalcom FloydWRHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulPatrick CraytonWRWrist· DNP
- QuestionableLarry EnglishLBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableScott MruczkowskiCAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAntwan ApplewhiteLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableBrandon SilerLBRibs· Full
- ProbableJacob HesterRBIllness· Full
- ProbableKelley WashingtonWRHip· Full
- ProbableLouis VasquezGNeck· Full
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBIllness· Full
Bengals
- OutBrian LeonardRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableBernard ScottRBToe· Limited
- QuestionableChad JohnsonWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableDennis RolandTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJonathan WadeCBKnee· Limited
- ProbableKyle CookCElbow· Full
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 12:59 | 5 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 10:19 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 8:45 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 6:11 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 6:02 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:13 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 2:41 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| LAC | Q2 12:54 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 0–13 |
| CIN | Q2 10:28 | 5 | 63 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| LAC | Q2 7:34 | 12 | 60 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| CIN | Q2 1:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q2 0:02 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 3–13 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q3 10:32 | 9 | 81 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q3 5:45 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q3 1:54 | 4 | 26 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q4 15:00 | 4 | 21 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| LAC | Q4 13:00 | 11 | 47 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| CIN | Q4 7:18 | 3 | 62 | Touchdown | 13–27 |
| LAC | Q4 6:25 | 4 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 13–27 |
| CIN | Q4 5:27 | 3 | 26 | Touchdown | 13–34 |
| LAC | Q4 3:54 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 20–34 |
| CIN | Q4 1:27 | 4 | 11 | End of half | 20–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 16/21 | 269 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 24 | 52 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 6 | 7 | 124 | 2 |
| Andre Caldwell | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Jordan Shipley | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.