Closing spread
SD -9
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 16/21 | 269 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 24 | 52 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 6 | 7 | 124 | 2 |
| Andre Caldwell | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Jordan Shipley | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.