Closing spread
STL -2
Total
40
Model margin
+0.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
49ers
- OutJoe StaleyTFibula· DNP
- OutNate ByhamTEHeel· DNP
- QuestionableAnthony DixonRBAnkle· Limited
- ProbablePatrick WillisLBHand· Limited
- ProbableTakeo SpikesLBHand· Limited
- ProbableBrian WestbrookRBNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableDeShawn WynnRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableJosh MorganWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableNate ClementsCBKnee· Full
Rams
- OutMichael HoomanawanuiTEAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableChris LongDEThigh· Limited
- QuestionableJason SmithTAnkle· Limited
- ProbableKenneth DarbyRBChest· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 11:21 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:42 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 4:26 | 3 | 7 | Safety | 0–9 |
| LA | Q1 2:47 | 4 | 38 | Turnover | 0–9 |
| SF | Q1 0:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–9 |
| LA | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–9 |
| SF | Q2 13:00 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–9 |
| LA | Q2 11:45 | 3 | 8 | Opp touchdown | 7–9 |
| LA | Q2 9:26 | 7 | 36 | Field goal | 7–12 |
| SF | Q2 5:42 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–12 |
| LA | Q2 2:32 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–12 |
| SF | Q2 1:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–12 |
| LA | Q2 0:48 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 14–12 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 15 | Turnover | 14–12 |
| LA | Q3 12:30 | 7 | 29 | Field goal | 14–15 |
| SF | Q3 9:39 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–15 |
| LA | Q3 7:56 | 9 | 58 | Punt | 14–15 |
| SF | Q3 2:59 | 5 | 59 | Missed field goal | 14–15 |
| LA | Q3 0:33 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 14–15 |
| SF | Q4 13:31 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–15 |
| LA | Q4 11:23 | 4 | 68 | Touchdown | 14–22 |
| SF | Q4 9:36 | 6 | 52 | Field goal | 17–22 |
| LA | Q4 5:41 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 17–25 |
| SF | Q4 3:51 | 7 | 36 | Turnover | 17–25 |
| LA | Q4 2:19 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 17–25 |
| SF | Q4 1:06 | 4 | 37 | End of half | 17–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Smith | 7/19 | 153 | 1 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 10/15 | 120 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 6 | 10 | 122 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.26
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.87
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.