Closing spread
STL -2
Total
40
Model margin
+0.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Smith | 7/19 | 153 | 1 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 10/15 | 120 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 6 | 10 | 122 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.26
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.87
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.