2010 · Week 16

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

14·34

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 19°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

KC -4

Total

42.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapChiefs
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.034
  • 40.0%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.099
  • -0.153EPA / rush-0.031
  • 9.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -0.87CPOE-1.87
  • 34.8%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.70
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. KC are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16KC @ TEN9–26TEN
2022 · W9TEN @ KC17–20KC
2021 · W7KC @ TEN3–27TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ KC24–35KC
2019 · W10KC @ TEN32–35TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ KC22–21TEN
2016 · W15TEN @ KC19–17TEN
2014 · W1TEN @ KC26–10TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–KC
KCQ1 15:00771Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 11:191030Turnover on downs0–7
KCQ1 6:351061Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 1:5231Punt0–14
KCQ1 0:09846Field goal0–17
TENQ2 11:31628Punt0–17
KCQ2 9:244102Touchdown0–24
TENQ2 7:19414Punt0–24
KCQ2 5:4536Punt6–24
TENQ2 4:23153Touchdown7–24
KCQ2 4:151041Missed field goal7–24
TENQ2 0:42212Opp touchdown7–31
TENQ2 0:22335End of half7–31
TENQ3 15:0036Punt7–31
KCQ3 13:50935Punt7–31
TENQ3 8:2630Punt7–31
KCQ3 7:0934Field goal7–34
TENQ3 5:43754Touchdown14–34
KCQ3 3:3533Punt14–34
TENQ3 2:053-9Punt14–34
KCQ3 1:063-1Turnover14–34
TENQ4 14:4750Punt14–34
KCQ4 12:4838Punt14–34
TENQ4 10:41639Turnover14–34
KCQ4 9:101167Turnover14–34
TENQ4 3:3238Punt14–34
KCQ4 3:03415Punt14–34
TENQ4 0:2500End of half14–34

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins14/3723522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson14584.10
Kerry Collins2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jared Cook59961
Kenny Britt49891
Nate Washington36370
Damian Williams11100
Justin Gage0600
Chris Johnson0200
Craig Stevens0100
Javon Ringer0100
Marc Mariani0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel24/3431430
Brodie Croyle1/2-201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles13775.90
Thomas Jones23512.20
Matt Cassel3206.70
Dexter McCluster144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe691531
Tony Moeaki57630
Jamaal Charles45402
Chris Chambers36170
Dexter McCluster22150
Leonard Pope11100
Terrance Copper1160
Thomas Jones0100
Jake O'Connell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.78