Closing spread
KC -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.034
- 40.0%Success rate42.3%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.153EPA / rush-0.031
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- -0.87CPOE-1.87
- 34.8%Third-down rate37.4%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.83Points / drive1.70
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. KC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 14/37 | 235 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cook | 5 | 9 | 96 | 1 |
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 9 | 89 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 24/34 | 314 | 3 | 0 |
| Brodie Croyle | 1/2 | -2 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 23 | 51 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 9 | 153 | 1 |
| Tony Moeaki | 5 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 5 | 40 | 2 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake O'Connell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.78