Closing spread
SF -6
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.220EPA / play-0.055
- 37.1%Success rate38.8%
- -0.248EPA / dropback-0.024
- -0.165EPA / rush-0.102
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.8%
- -9.59CPOE-4.51
- 27.4%Third-down rate33.2%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.06Points / drive1.30
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Bartel | 16/28 | 150 | 0 | 1 |
| John Skelton | 14/25 | 92 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| John Skelton | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 11 | 17 | 125 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Stephen Williams | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Max Komar | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 4 | 11 | 23 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 15/29 | 276 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 79 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Anthony Dixon | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 6 | 96 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.75
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.05
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.10