2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

7·38

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SF -6

Total

39.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • -0.220EPA / play-0.055
  • 37.1%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.248EPA / dropback-0.024
  • -0.165EPA / rush-0.102
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -9.59CPOE-4.51
  • 27.4%Third-down rate33.2%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.30
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
ARIQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:3139Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:3236Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:05422Punt0–0
ARIQ1 6:173-5Punt0–6
SFQ1 4:52137Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 4:453-9Punt0–7
SFQ1 3:04736Field goal0–10
ARIQ2 14:18419Punt0–10
SFQ2 11:4635Punt0–10
ARIQ2 10:15737Touchdown7–10
SFQ2 7:30419Punt7–10
ARIQ2 5:33941Punt7–10
SFQ2 1:40749End of half7–10
SFQ3 15:00575Touchdown7–17
ARIQ3 13:0230Punt7–17
SFQ3 11:58868Touchdown7–24
ARIQ3 8:50415Turnover7–24
SFQ3 7:3128Touchdown7–31
ARIQ3 6:51617Punt7–31
SFQ3 3:5235Punt7–31
ARIQ3 2:39850Turnover on downs7–31
SFQ4 14:534-1Punt7–31
ARIQ4 13:3448Turnover on downs7–31
SFQ4 12:12731Punt7–31
ARIQ4 7:101145Opp touchdown7–38
ARIQ4 4:011461Turnover on downs7–38
SFQ4 0:0400End of half7–38

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Richard Bartel16/2815001
John Skelton14/259211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower12302.50
Jason Wright3237.70
Chris Wells5163.20
John Skelton294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald11171251
Steve Breaston46260
Stephen Williams23260
Max Komar34260
Andre Roberts411230
Jason Wright3680
Chris Wells1160
Tim Hightower2520

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith15/2927620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook13796.12
Anthony Dixon11222.00
Alex Smith1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis36961
Josh Morgan34590
Michael Crabtree46470
Ted Ginn24411
Delanie Walker13170
Brian Westbrook14140
Anthony Dixon1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.6%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.05
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.10