2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

3·10

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 19°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

GB -11

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.097EPA / play+0.076
  • 39.0%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback+0.186
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.117
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +0.87CPOE+5.31
  • 33.1%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.43Points / drive1.91
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
GBQ1 15:00825Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:47312Punt0–0
GBQ1 8:07531Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 5:5236Punt0–0
GBQ1 4:55434Punt0–0
CHIQ1 2:28539Punt0–0
GBQ2 15:00827Punt0–0
CHIQ2 9:46962Field goal3–0
GBQ2 4:3137Punt3–0
CHIQ2 2:5539Punt3–0
GBQ2 1:45718Punt3–0
CHIQ2 0:3312End of half3–0
CHIQ3 15:00937Turnover on downs3–0
GBQ3 10:3310Turnover3–0
CHIQ3 10:1441Turnover3–0
GBQ3 8:3938Punt3–0
CHIQ3 7:0739Punt3–0
GBQ3 6:05635Field goal3–3
CHIQ3 2:393-16Punt3–3
GBQ3 0:32570Touchdown3–10
CHIQ4 12:4231Punt3–10
GBQ4 11:46419Punt3–10
CHIQ4 9:535-1Punt3–10
GBQ4 7:02311Punt3–10
CHIQ4 4:491566Turnover3–10
GBQ4 0:1000End of half3–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler21/3916802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte15916.10
Chester Taylor3113.70
Jay Cutler284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashied Davis710630
Matt Forte88600
Greg Olsen56290
Devin Hester15160
Brandon Manumaleuna0100
Devin Aromashodu0100
Johnny Knox0800

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/2822911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers7213.00
James Starks5204.00
Brandon Jackson7192.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings410970
Donald Driver55410
Jordy Nelson22390
Brandon Jackson23160
James Starks23150
James Jones1280
Andrew Quarless1150
Donald Lee1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.93