Closing spread
GB -11
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play+0.076
- 39.0%Success rate45.9%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.87CPOE+5.31
- 33.1%Third-down rate41.3%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.43Points / drive1.91
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/39 | 168 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 15 | 91 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashied Davis | 7 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 8 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Manumaleuna | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/28 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| James Starks | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 10 | 97 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| James Starks | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.93