Closing spread
BAL -9.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play+0.028
- 44.3%Success rate41.8%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.102
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.88CPOE+2.93
- 39.8%Third-down rate38.4%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.45Points / drive1.78
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 32/45 | 305 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 21 | 53 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 12 | 14 | 123 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 7 | 11 | 94 | 0 |
| Chase Coffman | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 14/19 | 125 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 20 | 77 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.73