2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

7·13

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -9.5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • -0.042EPA / play+0.028
  • 44.3%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.133
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.102
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.88CPOE+2.93
  • 39.8%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.78
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:0038Turnover0–0
BALQ1 14:06753Field goal0–3
CINQ1 10:1039Punt0–3
BALQ1 8:15418Punt0–3
CINQ1 5:361565Missed field goal0–3
BALQ2 12:43415Punt0–3
CINQ2 11:15223Turnover0–3
BALQ2 10:30115Turnover0–3
CINQ2 10:1739Punt0–3
BALQ2 8:16724Field goal0–6
CINQ2 4:41521Punt0–6
BALQ2 2:27630Turnover0–6
CINQ2 0:40422Turnover0–6
BALQ2 0:0300End of half0–6
BALQ3 15:003-1Punt0–6
CINQ3 12:4636Punt0–6
BALQ3 11:1036Punt0–6
CINQ3 8:3420Turnover0–6
BALQ3 7:55528Touchdown0–13
CINQ3 5:471375Touchdown7–13
BALQ4 12:2435Punt7–13
CINQ4 10:401159Turnover on downs7–13
BALQ4 5:303-1Punt7–13
CINQ4 3:51524Turnover7–13
BALQ4 1:5139Punt7–13
CINQ4 0:45567Turnover on downs7–13
BALQ4 0:1000End of half7–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer32/4530512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson21532.50
Bernard Scott5326.40
Carson Palmer231.50
Jerome Simpson122.00
Cedric Peerman100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerome Simpson12141231
Andre Caldwell711940
Chase Coffman35300
Jordan Shipley24140
Cedric Benson34120
Cedric Peerman12110
Bernard Scott1190
Reggie Kelly2260

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco14/1912501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice20773.91
Donte' Stallworth11515.00
Willis McGahee252.50
Joe Flacco310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Heap34530
Derrick Mason33340
T.J. Houshmandzadeh23170
Anquan Boldin2390
Willis McGahee1180
Ray Rice0100
Ed Dickson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.73