Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play+0.078
- 43.2%Success rate44.2%
- +0.048EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.085EPA / rush+0.029
- 9.1%Explosive rate11.1%
- +2.25CPOE+4.09
- 40.4%Third-down rate39.7%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.67Points / drive1.97
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen McGee | 11/27 | 127 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 11 | 81 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Stephen McGee | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chris Gronkowski | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 2 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 9 | 46 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Manuel Johnson | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 18/36 | 162 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Harrison | 21 | 99 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Eldra Buckley | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hall | 6 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| Clay Harbor | 4 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Eldra Buckley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.98
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.31