2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Stephen McGee

14·13

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Kevin Kolb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • -0.002EPA / play+0.078
  • 43.2%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.048EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.085EPA / rush+0.029
  • 9.1%Explosive rate11.1%
  • +2.25CPOE+4.09
  • 40.4%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.97
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
DALQ1 15:00841Punt0–0
PHIQ1 10:27732Punt0–0
DALQ1 7:5037Punt0–0
PHIQ1 5:4937Punt0–0
DALQ1 4:083-4Punt0–0
PHIQ1 2:31739Touchdown0–7
DALQ2 14:53427Punt0–7
PHIQ2 12:4931Opp touchdown7–7
PHIQ2 11:28939Punt7–7
DALQ2 6:2638Punt7–7
PHIQ2 4:2849Punt7–7
DALQ2 2:29419Punt7–7
PHIQ2 0:523-5Punt7–7
PHIQ2 0:203-8Turnover7–7
PHIQ3 15:00729Turnover7–7
DALQ3 12:08751Turnover on downs7–7
PHIQ3 9:33617Punt7–7
DALQ3 6:421031Punt7–7
PHIQ3 2:10534Field goal7–10
DALQ4 14:24949Missed field goal7–10
PHIQ4 9:45454Field goal7–13
DALQ4 7:013-10Punt7–13
PHIQ4 5:5865Punt7–13
DALQ4 2:54854Touchdown14–13
PHIQ4 0:554-9Turnover14–13
DALQ4 0:3200End of half14–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Stephen McGee11/2712710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones11817.40
Stephen McGee9556.10
Tashard Choice7202.90
Chris Gronkowski393.00
Marion Barber331.00
Miles Austin1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin23620
Jason Witten49461
Martellus Bennett23110
Roy Williams1360
Manuel Johnson1460
Tashard Choice0200
Felix Jones11-40

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb18/3616213

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Harrison21994.70
Eldra Buckley2115.50
Kevin Kolb492.30
Chad Hall122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Hall68841
Clay Harbor49320
Jason Avant14210
Jerome Harrison56170
Riley Cooper1450
Eldra Buckley0100
Jeremy Maclin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.98
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.31