Closing spread
HOU -4.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+8.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play+0.107
- 44.9%Success rate47.5%
- +0.010EPA / dropback+0.151
- +0.030EPA / rush+0.039
- 10.6%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.85CPOE+0.65
- 39.5%Third-down rate41.2%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.86Points / drive2.09
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 12/25 | 140 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Deji Karim | 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Hill | 3 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 7 | 26 | 1 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 18/22 | 253 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 31 | 180 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Derrick Ward | 4 | 63 | 15.8 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Jones | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Kevin Walter | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.3%
Expected total
48.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+4.99
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.62