2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trent Edwards

17·34

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

HOU -4.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+8.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTexans
  • +0.019EPA / play+0.107
  • 44.9%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback+0.151
  • +0.030EPA / rush+0.039
  • 10.6%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +1.85CPOE+0.65
  • 39.5%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.09
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 33–16 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6HOU @ JAX34–31HOU
2025 · W10JAX @ HOU29–36HOU
2025 · W3HOU @ JAX10–17JAX
2024 · W13HOU @ JAX23–20HOU
2024 · W4JAX @ HOU20–24HOU
2023 · W12JAX @ HOU24–21JAX
2023 · W3HOU @ JAX37–17HOU
2022 · W17JAX @ HOU31–3JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00690Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 12:25510Punt0–7
HOUQ1 9:42964Field goal0–10
JAXQ1 4:15862Touchdown7–10
HOUQ2 14:54575Touchdown7–17
JAXQ2 12:531049Field goal10–17
HOUQ2 8:4030Punt10–17
JAXQ2 6:30951Touchdown17–17
HOUQ2 1:54857Field goal17–20
JAXQ3 15:001138Punt17–20
HOUQ3 9:161192Touchdown17–27
JAXQ3 3:47515Punt17–27
HOUQ3 0:5738Punt17–27
JAXQ4 13:58412Punt17–27
HOUQ4 11:38276Touchdown17–34
JAXQ4 10:49652Missed field goal17–34
HOUQ4 8:1335Punt17–34
JAXQ4 6:39111Turnover17–34
HOUQ4 6:27931Turnover on downs17–34
JAXQ4 1:46622Turnover17–34
HOUQ4 0:3300End of half17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Edwards12/2514011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings221084.91
Deji Karim7527.40
Mike Thomas22010.00
Trent Edwards4184.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Hill34680
Rashad Jennings47340
Marcedes Lewis47261
Mike Thomas15120
Kassim Osgood0100
Mike Sims-Walker0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub18/2225310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster311805.82
Derrick Ward46315.81
Matt Schaub210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacoby Jones57700
Owen Daniels55621
Kevin Walter35540
Joel Dreessen22500
Arian Foster22100
Derrick Ward1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.7%5.4%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.3%

Expected total

48.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.99
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.62