Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.043
- 42.3%Success rate40.5%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.145
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- -2.30CPOE-3.37
- 34.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.25Points / drive1.59
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Webb | 20/32 | 145 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Webb | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 8 | 14 | 69 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 28/39 | 258 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Burleson | 6 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| Tony Scheffler | 6 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 6 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.11
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+2.28