2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Joe Webb

13·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Shaun Hill

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • -0.112EPA / play-0.043
  • 42.3%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.145
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -2.30CPOE-3.37
  • 34.1%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.59
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
MINQ1 15:00815Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:401174Turnover0–0
MINQ1 4:20752Punt0–0
DETQ1 0:41412Punt0–0
MINQ2 14:41828Turnover0–0
DETQ2 11:03732Field goal0–3
MINQ2 6:4534Punt0–3
DETQ2 5:021599Touchdown0–10
MINQ2 0:2311End of half0–10
DETQ3 15:001047Field goal0–13
MINQ3 9:5852Punt0–13
DETQ3 6:4721Opp touchdown7–13
DETQ3 6:0332Punt7–13
MINQ3 4:221234Field goal10–13
DETQ4 12:05877Touchdown10–20
MINQ4 9:2935Punt10–20
DETQ4 8:2356Punt10–20
MINQ4 5:361258Field goal13–20
DETQ4 1:5537Punt13–20
MINQ4 0:10112End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Webb20/3214501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Webb5357.00
Adrian Peterson14312.20
Toby Gerhart3124.00
Percy Harvin2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin814690
Jimmy Kleinsasser22220
Bernard Berrian24160
Visanthe Shiancoe23130
Greg Camarillo11130
Lorenzo Booker1260
Toby Gerhart1160
Greg Lewis0200
Adrian Peterson22-20

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun Hill28/3925811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahvid Best10343.40
Maurice Morris12211.81
Nate Burleson12020.00
Stefan Logan11212.00
Shaun Hill2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Burleson68831
Tony Scheffler67500
Bryant Johnson35490
Maurice Morris23240
Jahvid Best67230
Brandon Pettigrew36190
Will Heller1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.11
  • Rest differential+0.16
  • Expected margin+2.28