2010 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
NYG -4.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.079
- 44.3%Success rate40.8%
- +0.081EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.148
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.60CPOE-4.10
- 37.0%Third-down rate29.2%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.81Points / drive1.31
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/29 | 243 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 15 | 22 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 4 | 7 | 101 | 1 |
| Derek Hagan | 6 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 26/44 | 336 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Armstrong | 2 | 9 | 84 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 9 | 12 | 74 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Terrence Austin | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Roydell Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.09