2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

17·14

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

NYG -4.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.006EPA / play-0.079
  • 44.3%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.081EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.118EPA / rush-0.148
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.60CPOE-4.10
  • 37.0%Third-down rate29.2%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.31
  • 4.0%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
NYGQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:13514Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:011078Field goal3–0
WASQ1 5:03750Missed field goal3–0
NYGQ1 1:4235Turnover3–0
WASQ1 0:0430Turnover3–0
NYGQ2 14:17737Punt3–0
WASQ2 10:11419Punt3–0
NYGQ2 8:00969Touchdown10–0
WASQ2 3:06780Touchdown10–7
NYGQ2 0:2223End of half10–7
WASQ3 15:0059Punt10–7
NYGQ3 13:16295Touchdown17–7
WASQ3 12:19612Punt17–7
NYGQ3 10:2437Punt17–7
WASQ3 8:47317Turnover17–7
NYGQ3 7:2336Missed field goal17–7
WASQ3 5:441248Turnover17–7
NYGQ4 14:5233Punt17–7
WASQ4 13:35749Turnover17–7
NYGQ4 10:1635Punt17–7
WASQ4 8:3044Turnover on downs17–7
NYGQ4 7:373-2Punt17–13
WASQ4 6:02164Touchdown17–14
NYGQ4 5:52818Punt17–14
WASQ4 2:11619Turnover on downs17–14
NYGQ4 1:0300End of half17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning17/2924311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs13493.81
Ahmad Bradshaw15221.50
Eli Manning4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mario Manningham471011
Derek Hagan69700
Kevin Boss25290
Michael Clayton23190
D.J. Ware11160
Ahmad Bradshaw2380
Travis Beckum0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman26/4433621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Torain18613.40
Keiland Williams144.00
Rex Grossman122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Armstrong29841
Santana Moss912740
Chris Cooley57530
Keiland Williams45470
Terrence Austin23410
Fred Davis23201
Mike Sellers1390
Ryan Torain1180
Roydell Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.09