Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- QuestionableDarren McFaddenRBToe· DNP
- QuestionableJohnnie Lee HigginsWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableLangston WalkerTConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableNick MillerWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRichard SeymourDTHamstring· DNP
- ProbableChris JohnsonCBGroin· Full
- ProbableMario HendersonTAnkle· Full
- ProbableMichael MitchellSShoulder· Full
- ProbableNnamdi AsomughaCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableZach MillerTEFoot· Full
Chiefs
- DoubtfulDonald WashingtonSAnkle· Limited
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:58 | 1 | 2 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:47 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 11:03 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 8:53 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 6:15 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 2:52 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 0:12 | 14 | 101 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| KC | Q2 8:33 | 5 | -7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 6:57 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| KC | Q2 5:13 | 6 | 2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 3:13 | 11 | 54 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| KC | Q2 0:07 | 1 | 15 | End of half | 10–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 10–3 |
| KC | Q3 10:20 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 8:02 | 10 | 55 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| KC | Q3 2:26 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q4 14:28 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 17–10 |
| KC | Q4 11:37 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 23–10 |
| LV | Q4 11:16 | 1 | 10 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| KC | Q4 11:07 | 5 | -5 | Opp touchdown | 31–10 |
| KC | Q4 9:11 | 10 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 31–10 |
| LV | Q4 6:13 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 31–10 |
| KC | Q4 4:32 | 11 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 31–10 |
| LV | Q4 1:18 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 31–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 11/33 | 115 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyler Palko | 2/3 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 14 | 87 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Tyler Palko | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.