Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
38
Model margin
-2.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.077
- 40.3%Success rate40.5%
- +0.166EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.126
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- +3.44CPOE+2.13
- 44.1%Third-down rate37.8%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 1.89Points / drive1.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 15/22 | 280 | 2 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 5/7 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 5 | 105 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 4 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 20/41 | 209 | 1 | 3 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 7 | 12 | 67 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 2 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Mike Bell | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.25