2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

41·9

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

PIT -6.5

Total

38

Model margin

-2.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.077
  • 40.3%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.126
  • 10.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +3.44CPOE+2.13
  • 44.1%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.31
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00214Turnover6–0
PITQ1 14:25156Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 14:1769Punt7–0
PITQ1 11:351071Touchdown14–0
CLEQ1 6:571485Field goal14–3
PITQ2 14:431169Touchdown21–3
CLEQ2 7:5133Turnover21–3
PITQ2 6:28324Touchdown28–3
CLEQ2 4:53417Turnover28–3
PITQ2 2:33653Field goal31–3
CLEQ2 1:3076End of half31–3
PITQ3 15:001382Touchdown38–3
CLEQ3 7:1830Punt38–3
PITQ3 5:3431Punt38–3
CLEQ3 3:563-9Punt38–3
PITQ3 2:28941Field goal41–3
CLEQ4 12:321378Touchdown41–9
PITQ4 6:33621Punt41–9
CLEQ4 1:511122End of half41–9

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger15/2228020
Byron Leftwich5/74200
Antwaan Randle El1/1310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall14362.62
Jonathan Dwyer9283.10
Ben Roethlisberger4246.00
Isaac Redman3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace351051
Heath Miller47551
Antonio Brown44520
Hines Ward56451
Rashard Mendenhall11240
Antwaan Randle El23210
Emmanuel Sanders12160
Isaac Redman1270

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy20/4120913
Seneca Wallace1/1100
Josh Cribbs0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colt McCoy4194.80
Mike Bell5142.80
Peyton Hillis6132.20
Josh Cribbs100.00
Mohamed Massaquoi1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson712670
Mohamed Massaquoi37500
Josh Cribbs34370
Brian Robiskie26351
Mike Bell45140
Chansi Stuckey1440
Peyton Hillis1130
Robert Royal0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.0%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.25