2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

33·28

Broncos

Denver

QB Tim Tebow

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SD -5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–DEN
LACQ1 15:0054Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:3733Punt0–0
LACQ1 10:3937Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:45317Turnover0–0
LACQ1 7:28518Turnover0–0
DENQ1 5:39640Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 2:57876Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 13:5247Punt7–7
LACQ2 12:10642Field goal10–7
DENQ2 9:5932Punt10–7
LACQ2 8:50956Field goal13–7
DENQ2 3:45516Punt13–7
LACQ2 1:42954Field goal16–7
DENQ2 0:0900End of half16–7
DENQ3 15:00334Turnover16–7
LACQ3 13:44571Touchdown23–7
DENQ3 11:1034Punt23–7
LACQ3 9:2930Field goal26–7
DENQ3 8:311183Touchdown26–14
LACQ3 3:15853Missed field goal26–14
DENQ4 14:0749Turnover on downs26–14
LACQ4 12:08752Touchdown33–20
DENQ4 7:5500Touchdown33–21
LACQ4 7:4247Punt33–21
DENQ4 5:35925Turnover on downs33–21
LACQ4 3:1137Punt33–21
DENQ4 2:491192Touchdown33–28
LACQ4 0:2600End of half33–28
DENQ4 0:2336End of half33–28

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Tebow16/3620522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Tebow13947.21
Knowshon Moreno6416.80
Lance Ball6213.50
Correll Buckhalter382.70
Brandon Lloyd1-18-18.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Lloyd514731
Correll Buckhalter44490
Daniel Graham25410
Eric Decker23221
Jabar Gaffney13120
Lance Ball1160
Knowshon Moreno1120
Daniel Coats0100
Eddie Royal0100
Demaryius Thomas0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.14
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.19

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.