Closing spread
SD -5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 16/36 | 205 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 13 | 94 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | -18 | -18.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 5 | 14 | 73 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Daniel Coats | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.14
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.19
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.