Closing spread
STL -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 22/36 | 192 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruvell Martin | 3 | 3 | 85 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| Cameron Morrah | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.48
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.