Closing spread
STL -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- QuestionableMichael HoomanawanuiTEAnkle· Full
- ProbableJerome MurphyCBFinger· Full
Seahawks
- QuestionableBrandon StokleyWRHead· DNP
- QuestionableMatt HasselbeckQBHip· Limited
- ProbableLofa TatupuLBKnee· Full
- ProbableOlindo MareKBack· Full
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 81 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 11:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 9:30 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:09 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 4:30 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:41 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 1:39 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 0:09 | 12 | 83 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 8:54 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 6:06 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 3:47 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 1:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 0:35 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q3 12:07 | 1 | -7 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LA | Q3 11:54 | 6 | 22 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| SEA | Q3 8:59 | 12 | 72 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| LA | Q3 3:04 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–10 |
| SEA | Q3 2:09 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 6–10 |
| LA | Q4 14:10 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–10 |
| SEA | Q4 13:07 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| LA | Q4 10:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–13 |
| SEA | Q4 9:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–13 |
| LA | Q4 9:23 | 2 | 14 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| SEA | Q4 8:42 | 13 | 52 | Field goal | 6–16 |
| LA | Q4 1:37 | 4 | 2 | Turnover on downs | 6–16 |
| SEA | Q4 0:19 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 22/36 | 192 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruvell Martin | 3 | 3 | 85 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| Cameron Morrah | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.48
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.