2010 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Louisiana Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
NO -7
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play+0.039
- 42.0%Success rate46.2%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.117
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.31CPOE+5.83
- 42.5%Third-down rate48.8%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.88Points / drive1.88
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 21/26 | 255 | 2 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 19 | 66 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dezmon Briscoe | 4 | 5 | 65 | 1 |
| Maurice Stovall | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Preston Parker | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ryan Purvis | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/38 | 196 | 1 | 1 |
| Chase Daniel | 2/3 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Arrington | 7 | 9 | 79 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 6 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Tory Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.61