2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

23·13

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Louisiana Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSaints
  • +0.046EPA / play+0.039
  • 42.0%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.117
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.31CPOE+5.83
  • 42.5%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.88
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NO
TBQ1 15:00851Field goal3–0
NOQ1 9:581568Touchdown3–7
TBQ1 4:4139Punt3–7
NOQ1 2:221153Turnover3–7
TBQ2 12:211191Touchdown10–7
NOQ2 6:40518Punt10–7
TBQ2 4:22831Turnover10–7
NOQ2 1:49722Turnover10–7
TBQ2 0:4500End of half10–7
NOQ3 15:00943Field goal10–10
TBQ3 10:30418Field goal13–10
NOQ3 8:01514Turnover13–10
TBQ3 5:11538Touchdown20–10
NOQ3 2:091259Field goal20–13
TBQ4 11:1740Turnover20–13
NOQ4 9:1539Punt20–13
TBQ4 7:11660Field goal23–13
NOQ4 4:01419Punt23–13
TBQ4 2:00320End of half23–13

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman21/2625520
Micheal Spurlock0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount19663.50
Josh Freeman4112.80
Cadillac Williams177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dezmon Briscoe45651
Maurice Stovall22450
Mike Williams45401
Preston Parker23330
Kellen Winslow33280
Kregg Lumpkin11120
Ryan Purvis11110
John Gilmore1390
LeGarrette Blount2220
Josh Johnson0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees22/3819611
Chase Daniel2/31600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush9707.80
Chris Ivory7334.70
Julius Jones461.50
Chase Daniel100.00
Robert Meachem1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adrian Arrington79790
Reggie Bush59550
Lance Moore69530
Jimmy Graham22151
Robert Meachem1250
Julius Jones2330
Devery Henderson0400
Tory Humphrey0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.61