Closing spread
IND -9
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.095
- 40.0%Success rate47.2%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.153EPA / rush-0.067
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.7%
- -0.87CPOE+3.98
- 34.8%Third-down rate44.8%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.83Points / drive2.12
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 28/39 | 300 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 20 | 39 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 5 | 9 | 85 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 7 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 6 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/41 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 13 | 78 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 9 | 10 | 68 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 7 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Blair White | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.74