2010 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

20·23

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -9

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

IND perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.095
  • 40.0%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.182
  • -0.153EPA / rush-0.067
  • 9.4%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -0.87CPOE+3.98
  • 34.8%Third-down rate44.8%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.83Points / drive2.12
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
TENQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:581047Field goal0–3
TENQ1 8:171146Field goal3–3
INDQ1 2:271053Field goal3–6
TENQ2 13:131156Field goal6–6
INDQ2 6:481073Touchdown6–13
TENQ2 1:55841Missed field goal6–13
INDQ3 15:0038Punt6–13
TENQ3 13:30565Touchdown13–13
INDQ3 11:29749Touchdown13–20
TENQ3 9:16970Touchdown20–20
INDQ3 4:1864Punt20–20
TENQ3 1:58515Punt20–20
INDQ4 14:5336Punt20–20
TENQ4 13:2731Punt20–20
INDQ4 11:25633Punt20–20
TENQ4 8:17529Punt20–20
INDQ4 6:01511Punt20–20
TENQ4 4:0236Punt20–20
INDQ4 2:28637Turnover20–20
TENQ4 1:3423Turnover20–20
INDQ4 1:25437Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins28/3930020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson20391.90
Javon Ringer155.00
Damian Williams155.00
Kerry Collins221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt59851
Jared Cook79580
Chris Johnson66511
Nate Washington14380
Damian Williams34240
Randy Moss11180
Javon Ringer1170

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning27/4126420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dominic Rhodes11484.40
Joseph Addai11444.00
Donald Brown393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon713781
Reggie Wayne910681
Jacob Tamme79670
Blair White47510
Joseph Addai0100
Donald Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.74