2010 · WC

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

30·7

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 26°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

41

Model margin

+2.6est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapChiefs
  • +0.028EPA / play+0.034
  • 41.8%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback+0.099
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.031
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +2.93CPOE-1.87
  • 38.4%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.70
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 10–5 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. KC are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4BAL @ KC20–37KC
2024 · W1BAL @ KC20–27KC
2023 · playoffsKC @ BAL17–10KC
2021 · W2KC @ BAL35–36BAL
2020 · W3KC @ BAL34–20KC
2019 · W3BAL @ KC28–33KC
2018 · W14BAL @ KC24–27KC
2015 · W15KC @ BAL34–14KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–KC
BALQ1 15:001369Field goal3–0
KCQ1 9:0136Punt3–0
BALQ1 7:271031Turnover3–0
KCQ1 2:58246Touchdown3–7
BALQ1 2:09540Punt3–7
KCQ2 14:48641Turnover3–7
BALQ2 11:2436Punt3–7
KCQ2 9:12544Punt3–7
BALQ2 5:491180Touchdown10–7
KCQ2 0:1900End of half10–7
KCQ3 15:003-1Turnover10–7
KCQ3 13:57831Turnover on downs10–7
BALQ3 9:38636Field goal13–7
KCQ3 6:3633Turnover13–7
BALQ3 5:4041Field goal16–7
KCQ3 4:2021Turnover16–7
BALQ3 3:26631Touchdown23–7
KCQ3 0:2733Punt23–7
BALQ4 14:461685Touchdown30–7
KCQ4 4:264-12Turnover30–7
BALQ4 3:32413End of half30–7

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco25/3426520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice17573.40
Willis McGahee10444.41
Joe Flacco7263.70
Jalen Parmele4133.30
Donte' Stallworth111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Heap10131080
Anquan Boldin57641
Ray Rice56421
T.J. Houshmandzadeh11280
Derrick Mason14110
Willis McGahee22100
Ed Dickson1120

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel9/187003

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles9829.11
Thomas Jones5153.00
Matt Cassel362.00
Dexter McCluster252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Moeaki14220
Dexter McCluster44170
Jamaal Charles12150
Thomas Jones1180
Verran Tucker1350
Kevin Curtis1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

6.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.61