Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
41
Model margin
+2.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.028EPA / play+0.034
- 41.8%Success rate42.3%
- +0.133EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.031
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +2.93CPOE-1.87
- 38.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.78Points / drive1.70
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. KC are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/34 | 265 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jalen Parmele | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 10 | 13 | 108 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 7 | 64 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 9/18 | 70 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 9 | 82 | 9.1 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Moeaki | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Verran Tucker | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Kevin Curtis | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
6.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.61