Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.078
- 45.9%Success rate44.2%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.117EPA / rush+0.029
- 8.2%Explosive rate11.1%
- +5.31CPOE+4.09
- 41.3%Third-down rate39.7%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.97
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/27 | 180 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 23 | 123 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| James Starks | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 20/36 | 292 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Avant | 7 | 9 | 93 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.57