2010 · WC

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

21·16

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 30°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapEagles
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.078
  • 45.9%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.117EPA / rush+0.029
  • 8.2%Explosive rate11.1%
  • +5.31CPOE+4.09
  • 41.3%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.97
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 11–7 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PHI @ GB10–7PHI
2024 · playoffsGB @ PHI10–22PHI
2024 · W1GB @ PHI29–34PHI
2022 · W12GB @ PHI33–40PHI
2020 · W13PHI @ GB16–30GB
2019 · W4PHI @ GB34–27PHI
2016 · W12GB @ PHI27–13GB
2014 · W11PHI @ GB20–53GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00525Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 11:3822Missed field goal0–0
GBQ1 10:44530Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:34627Punt0–0
GBQ1 5:461163Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 0:0863Punt7–0
GBQ2 12:211257Touchdown14–0
PHIQ2 5:21768Field goal14–3
GBQ2 1:11528End of half14–3
GBQ3 15:0037Turnover14–3
PHIQ3 13:56224Touchdown14–10
GBQ3 13:501290Touchdown21–10
PHIQ3 7:33736Punt21–10
GBQ3 4:2735Punt21–10
PHIQ3 2:52953Missed field goal21–10
GBQ4 13:05623Punt21–10
PHIQ4 8:501475Touchdown21–16
GBQ4 4:0257Punt21–16
PHIQ4 1:45539Turnover21–16
GBQ4 0:3300End of half21–16

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/2718030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks231235.30
Brandon Jackson3103.30
Aaron Rodgers341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver57560
Brandon Jackson22271
Andrew Quarless23270
James Jones1291
James Starks2290
Greg Jennings1580
Tom Crabtree1171
Jordy Nelson0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick20/3629211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy12463.80
Mike Vick8324.01
Jerome Harrison133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Avant79931
Jeremy Maclin37730
DeSean Jackson24470
LeSean McCoy47360
Brent Celek24250
Riley Cooper24180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.57