2010 · DIV · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

24·31

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.028EPA / play+0.035
  • 41.8%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +2.93CPOE+3.44
  • 38.4%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.89
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:00626Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:221154Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 6:181340Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 1:2020Opp touchdown14–7
PITQ1 0:533-1Punt14–7
BALQ2 14:06517Punt14–7
PITQ2 10:3257Turnover14–7
BALQ2 8:45616Touchdown21–7
PITQ2 5:431054Missed field goal21–7
BALQ2 0:2100End of half21–7
PITQ3 15:0057Punt21–7
BALQ3 11:3731Turnover21–7
PITQ3 10:04223Touchdown21–14
BALQ3 9:113-5Punt21–14
PITQ3 7:25624Punt21–14
BALQ3 3:4910Turnover21–14
PITQ3 3:38425Touchdown21–21
BALQ3 1:2120Turnover21–21
PITQ3 1:0476Field goal21–24
BALQ4 12:15817Punt21–24
PITQ4 7:3433Punt21–24
BALQ4 5:55423Field goal24–24
PITQ4 3:541163Touchdown24–31
BALQ4 1:334-8Turnover on downs24–31
PITQ4 1:0300End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco16/3012511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice12322.71
Willis McGahee441.00
Joe Flacco2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Heap37431
T.J. Houshmandzadeh35380
Ray Rice78320
Willis McGahee22140
Derrick Mason0300
Anquan Boldin15-20

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger19/3222620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall20462.32
Mewelde Moore2126.00
Ben Roethlisberger6111.80
Isaac Redman144.00
Mike Wallace2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown33750
Emmanuel Sanders47540
Heath Miller57391
Hines Ward36251
Mike Wallace37200
Rashard Mendenhall11130
Antwaan Randle El0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.68