Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.028EPA / play+0.035
- 41.8%Success rate40.3%
- +0.133EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.126
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.5%
- +2.93CPOE+3.44
- 38.4%Third-down rate44.1%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.78Points / drive1.89
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/30 | 125 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 3 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 7 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 5 | -2 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 19/32 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 20 | 46 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 3 | 75 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.68