2010 · CON · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

21·14

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 20°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

42

Model margin

-0.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.097
  • 45.9%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.166
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +5.31CPOE+0.87
  • 41.3%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.43
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
GBQ1 15:00784Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 10:50529Punt7–0
GBQ1 7:53737Punt7–0
CHIQ1 4:4934Punt7–0
GBQ1 2:48416Punt7–0
CHIQ1 0:2230Punt7–0
GBQ2 14:06549Touchdown14–0
CHIQ2 11:13746Punt14–0
GBQ2 7:40544Punt14–0
CHIQ2 4:1777Punt14–0
GBQ2 1:44523Turnover14–0
CHIQ2 0:49217Turnover14–0
GBQ2 0:3200End of half14–0
CHIQ3 15:0036Punt14–0
GBQ3 13:221054Turnover14–0
CHIQ3 8:5030Punt14–0
GBQ3 8:26737Punt14–0
CHIQ3 4:2938Punt14–0
GBQ3 2:593-3Punt14–0
CHIQ3 0:57867Touchdown14–7
GBQ4 12:0269Punt14–7
CHIQ4 9:1930Punt14–7
GBQ4 8:2239Punt14–7
CHIQ4 7:2235Opp touchdown21–7
CHIQ4 6:04460Touchdown21–14
GBQ4 4:433-1Punt21–14
CHIQ4 2:531252Turnover21–14
GBQ4 0:3700End of half21–14

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers17/3024402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks22743.41
Aaron Rodgers7395.61
Brandon Jackson252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings8111300
Jordy Nelson45670
Brandon Jackson11160
James Jones11100
Donald Driver1590
James Starks1160
Tom Crabtree0100
Andrew Quarless0300

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Hanie13/2015312
Jay Cutler6/148001
Todd Collins0/4000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte17704.10
Jay Cutler2105.00
Caleb Hanie133.00
Chester Taylor320.71
Earl Bennett1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte1015900
Johnny Knox26560
Earl Bennett35451
Greg Olsen35300
Chester Taylor11120
Devin Hester0400
Kellen Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.03