AFC East · 2011
Buffalo Bills
Record
6-10
Net EPA
-0.110est.
Efficiency
How this team plays
Percentile against the teams that played this season, computed from play-by-play.
Offence
Higher is better.
- EPA / play-0.000
- Success rate44.6%
- EPA / dropback+0.012
- EPA / rush-0.023
- Explosive rate8.9%
- CPOE+0.64
- Third-down rate30.9%
- Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- Points / drive1.56
- Turnover rate2.9%
← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →
Defence
Oriented so that further right is always better.
- EPA / play allowed+0.057
- Success rate allowed45.7%
- EPA / dropback allowed+0.089
- EPA / rush allowed+0.017
- Explosive rate allowed10.8%
- Pressure rate (proxy)14.3%
- Sack rate5.0%
- Points / drive allowed1.96
← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →
Offensive EPA / play — league shape-0.000 · 57th %ile
Defensive EPA / play allowed — league shape (left is better)+0.057 · 84th %ile
Form
The shape of the season
Rolling four-week EPA per play. The aggregate hides collapses and surges; this shows them.
4-week rolling EPA/play — up is good for both lines.
- Offense
- Defense (prevented)
Betting profile
Against the number
Settled against closing lines. Descriptive, not predictive.
ATS
6-9-1
-1.3 vs line
Home
4-4
Away
2-5-1
As favorite
1-4
As dog
5-5-1
O/U
11-5
+4.7 vs total
Roster
61 players
53 active. Skill players link through to their fantasy page.
Quarterbacks2
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tyler Thigpen | QB | 27 | 6'1" 216 | 4 | — | ACT |
| 14 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | 30 | 6'2" 225 | 6 | Harvard | ACT |
Backs & receivers19
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Steve Johnson | WR | 25 | 6'2" 210 | 3 | Kentucky | ACT |
| 16 | Brad Smith | WR | 29 | 6'2" 212 | 5 | — | ACT |
| 18 | Naaman Roosevelt | WR | 25 | 6'0" 201 | 1 | — | ACT |
| 20 | Johnny White | RB | 23 | 5'10" 204 | R | — | ACT |
| 28 | C.J. Spiller | RB | 24 | 5'11" 197 | 1 | Clemson | ACT |
| 30 | Tashard Choice | RB | 28 | 5'10" 218 | 3 | — | ACT |
| 30 | Tashard Choice | RB | 28 | 5'10" 218 | 3 | — | TRC |
| 38 | Corey McIntyre | FB | 32 | 6'0" 247 | 9 | — | ACT |
| 80 | Derek Hagan | WR | 28 | 6'2" 215 | 5 | — | ACT |
| 80 | Derek Hagan | WR | 28 | 6'2" 215 | 5 | — | TRD |
| 82 | Ruvell Martin | WR | 29 | 6'4" 220 | 7 | — | ACT |
| 84 | Scott Chandler | TE | 26 | 6'7" 263 | 4 | Iowa | ACT |
| 86 | David Nelson | WR | 26 | 6'5" 215 | 1 | — | ACT |
| 87 | Kevin Brock | TE | 25 | 6'5" 260 | 2 | — | ACT |
| 87 | Kevin Brock | TE | 25 | 6'5" 260 | 2 | — | TRD |
| 88 | Kamar Aiken | WR | 22 | 6'2" 213 | R | Central Florida | ACT |
| 89 | Fendi Onobun | TE | 26 | 6'6" 249 | 1 | — | TRD |
| 89 | Fendi Onobun | TE | 26 | 6'6" 249 | 1 | — | TRC |
| 89 | Fendi Onobun | TE | 26 | 6'6" 249 | 1 | — | ACT |
Offensive line8
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | Kraig Urbik | G | 27 | 6'5" 329 | 2 | Wisconsin | ACT |
| 67 | Andy Levitre | G | 25 | 6'2" 303 | 2 | Oregon State | ACT |
| 71 | Sam Young | T | 24 | 6'8" 322 | 1 | Notre Dame | ACT |
| 74 | Colin Brown | G | 26 | 6'7" 328 | 2 | — | ACT |
| 75 | Chris Hairston | T | 22 | 6'6" 332 | R | Clemson | ACT |
| 76 | Chad Rinehart | G | 26 | 6'5" 323 | 3 | — | ACT |
| 77 | Demetress Bell | T | 27 | 6'5" 311 | 3 | — | ACT |
| 79 | Erik Pears | T | 29 | 6'8" 314 | 6 | — | ACT |
Defensive front18
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | Nick Barnett | ILB | 30 | 6'2" 230 | 8 | — | ACT |
| 52 | Arthur Moats | ILB | 23 | 6'2" 249 | 1 | James Madison | ACT |
| 54 | Andra Davis | ILB | 34 | 6'1" 255 | 9 | — | ACT |
| 55 | Kelvin Sheppard | ILB | 23 | 6'2" 248 | R | LSU | ACT |
| 57 | Danny Batten | OLB | 25 | 6'3" 242 | 1 | — | ACT |
| 58 | Kirk Morrison | ILB | 29 | 6'2" 247 | 6 | — | ACT |
| 69 | Michael Jasper | DT | 26 | 6'4" 394 | R | — | ACT |
| 72 | Kellen Heard | DE | 27 | 6'6" 346 | 1 | — | ACT |
| 73 | Jarron Gilbert | DT | 26 | 6'5" 285 | 2 | — | ACT |
| 73 | Jarron Gilbert | DT | 26 | 6'5" 285 | 2 | — | TRT |
| 90 | Chris Kelsay | OLB | 33 | 6'4" 260 | 8 | — | ACT |
| 91 | Spencer Johnson | DE | 31 | 6'3" 306 | 7 | — | ACT |
| 92 | Alex Carrington | LB | 24 | 6'5" 305 | 1 | — | ACT |
| 94 | Kyle Moore | DE | 26 | 6'6" 272 | 2 | — | ACT |
| 94 | Kyle Moore | DE | 26 | 6'6" 272 | 2 | — | TRC |
| 97 | Lionel Dotson | DE | 26 | 6'4" 290 | 3 | — | ACT |
| 98 | Dwan Edwards | DE | 30 | 6'3" 300 | 7 | Oregon State | ACT |
| 99 | Marcell Dareus | DE | 21 | 6'3" 340 | R | Alabama | ACT |
Secondary10
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Leodis McKelvin | CB | 27 | 5'10" 186 | 3 | Troy | ACT |
| 23 | Aaron Williams | CB | 21 | 6'0" 200 | R | Texas | ACT |
| 25 | Da'Norris Searcy | SS | 24 | 5'11" 218 | R | North Carolina | ACT |
| 26 | Justin Rogers | CB | 23 | 5'10" 181 | R | Richmond | ACT |
| 27 | Reggie Corner | CB | 29 | 5'9" 181 | 3 | — | ACT |
| 29 | Drayton Florence | CB | 32 | 6'0" 193 | 8 | — | ACT |
| 31 | Jairus Byrd | FS | 26 | 5'10" 203 | 2 | Oregon | ACT |
| 37 | George Wilson | SS | 30 | 6'0" 212 | 7 | — | ACT |
| 43 | Bryan Scott | SS | 30 | 6'1" 220 | 8 | — | ACT |
| 47 | Josh Nesbitt | DB | 23 | 6'1" 222 | R | — | ACT |
Specialists4
| # | Player | Pos | Age | Ht/Wt | Exp | College | St |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Brian Moorman | P | 35 | 6'0" 176 | 12 | — | ACT |
| 10 | Brandon Coutu | K | 28 | 5'11" 188 | 3 | — | TRD |
| 10 | Brandon Coutu | K | 28 | 5'11" 188 | 3 | — | ACT |
| 65 | Garrison Sanborn | LS | 26 | 6'1" 242 | 2 | Florida State | ACT |
Schedule
16 games
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Spread | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Chiefs | W 41-7 | +3.5 | +0.209 |
| 2 | vs Raiders | W 38-35 | -3.5 | +0.332 |
| 3 | vs Patriots | W 34-31 | +7 | +0.124 |
| 4 | @ Bengals | L 20-23 | -3 | -0.038 |
| 5 | vs Eagles | W 31-24 | +3 | +0.065 |
| 6 | @ Giants | L 24-27 | +3 | +0.138 |
| 8 | vs Commanders | W 23-0 | -4 | +0.004 |
| 9 | vs Jets | L 11-27 | -2.5 | -0.169 |
| 10 | @ Cowboys | L 7-44 | +4.5 | -0.288 |
| 11 | @ Dolphins | L 8-35 | +3 | -0.290 |
| 12 | @ Jets | L 24-28 | +9.5 | +0.063 |
| 13 | vs Titans | L 17-23 | -1 | +0.010 |
| 14 | @ Chargers | L 10-37 | +7 | -0.250 |
| 15 | vs Dolphins | L 23-30 | +1 | -0.080 |
| 16 | vs Broncos | W 40-14 | +3 | -0.001 |
| 17 | @ Patriots | L 21-49 | +10 | +0.014 |