Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.086
- 47.2%Success rate46.8%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.000
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.8%
- +3.18CPOE+0.81
- 43.3%Third-down rate41.8%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.79Points / drive2.27
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/29 | 307 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 20 | 131 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Ogletree | 8 | 11 | 114 | 2 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 5 | 85 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 4 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/32 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 1 |
| David Wilson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 6 | 11 | 58 | 0 |
| Domenik Hixon | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.74