2012 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

24·17

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 77°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.086
  • 47.2%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.000
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +3.18CPOE+0.81
  • 43.3%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.27
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:443-5Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:09964Turnover0–0
DALQ1 6:33739Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 2:12718Punt0–0
DALQ2 13:27425Turnover0–0
NYGQ2 10:303-3Field goal0–3
DALQ2 9:10521Punt0–3
NYGQ2 5:1832Punt0–3
DALQ2 3:34778Touchdown7–3
NYGQ2 1:013-1End of half7–3
DALQ3 15:00980Touchdown14–3
NYGQ3 10:24999Touchdown14–10
DALQ3 5:11765Field goal17–10
NYGQ3 0:4066Punt17–10
DALQ4 13:0312112Touchdown24–10
NYGQ4 5:571279Touchdown24–17
DALQ4 2:36423End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo22/2930731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray201316.50
Tony Romo5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Ogletree8111142
Dez Bryant45850
Miles Austin44731
Jason Witten23100
James Hanna11100
DeMarco Murray2290
John Phillips1160
Felix Jones0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning21/3221310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw17784.61
David Wilson242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz611580
Domenik Hixon35550
Martellus Bennett46401
Hakeem Nicks46380
Ahmad Bradshaw22150
Bear Pascoe1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

48.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.74