Closing spread
OAK -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutJared GaitherTBack· DNP
- OutRyan MathewsRBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableAntonio GarayDTAnkle· Limited
Raiders
- OutJacoby FordWRFoot· DNP
- QuestionableCooper CarlisleGBack· Limited
- QuestionableDenarius MooreWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableJuron CrinerWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRichard SeymourDTKnee· Limited
- ProbableBrandon MyersTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableDavid AusberryTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableSebastian JanikowskiKleft Groin· Full
- ProbableStefen WisniewskiGCalf· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 51 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:49 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:51 | 6 | 33 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 4:56 | 8 | 74 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 1:00 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 11:16 | 15 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 3:10 | 13 | 83 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| LAC | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–6 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–6 |
| LV | Q3 12:25 | 8 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 10–6 |
| LAC | Q3 8:43 | 6 | 29 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| LV | Q3 6:01 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–6 |
| LAC | Q3 4:20 | 3 | 12 | Field goal | 16–6 |
| LV | Q3 1:49 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 16–6 |
| LAC | Q3 0:50 | 8 | 32 | Field goal | 19–6 |
| LV | Q4 12:48 | 8 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 19–6 |
| LAC | Q4 9:52 | 7 | 25 | Field goal | 22–6 |
| LV | Q4 5:06 | 14 | 59 | Touchdown | 22–14 |
| LAC | Q4 0:54 | 2 | 5 | Punt | 22–14 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.