2012 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

16·20

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

40.5

Model margin

-3.6est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • +0.109EPA / play-0.259
  • 45.2%Success rate35.1%
  • +0.213EPA / dropback-0.267
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.242
  • 11.2%Explosive rate6.0%
  • +5.50CPOE-8.47
  • 39.8%Third-down rate25.9%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
  • 2.17Points / drive0.79
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
SEAQ1 15:00717Missed field goal0–0
ARIQ1 11:1522Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 10:24633Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 7:261363Field goal3–3
SEAQ1 0:3477Punt3–3
ARIQ2 11:201156Touchdown3–10
SEAQ2 5:58827Punt3–10
ARIQ2 1:35433Punt3–10
SEAQ2 0:45429Turnover3–10
ARIQ3 15:0039Punt3–10
SEAQ3 13:14411Turnover3–10
ARIQ3 11:034-1Field goal3–13
SEAQ3 9:59524Touchdown10–13
ARIQ3 7:5110Turnover10–13
SEAQ3 7:42310Field goal13–13
ARIQ3 5:1333Punt13–13
SEAQ3 3:3237Punt13–13
ARIQ3 1:5233Punt13–13
SEAQ3 0:15522Punt13–13
ARIQ4 12:3345Punt13–13
SEAQ4 10:58412Field goal16–13
ARIQ4 9:201381Touchdown16–20
SEAQ4 4:592055Turnover on downs16–20
ARIQ4 0:1800End of half16–20

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/3415311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch21854.00
Russell Wilson8202.50
Leon Washington252.50
Robert Turbin252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braylon Edwards59430
Zach Miller33400
Sidney Rice49361
Charly Martin12150
Marshawn Lynch22120
Doug Baldwin2650
Robert Turbin1120
Ben Obomanu0100
Anthony McCoy0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton14/2814901
Kevin Kolb6/86610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Roberts11515.00
Chris Wells7142.00
Ryan Williams891.10
LaRod Stephens-Howling242.01
John Skelton122.00
Kevin Kolb1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald411630
Andre Roberts59541
Early Doucet33370
Todd Heap34320
Ryan Williams23170
Jeff King2380
LaRod Stephens-Howling1140
Michael Floyd0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%3.1%4.8%3.2%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.5%

Expected total

40.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.60