Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
-3.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.259
- 45.2%Success rate35.1%
- +0.213EPA / dropback-0.267
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.242
- 11.2%Explosive rate6.0%
- +5.50CPOE-8.47
- 39.8%Third-down rate25.9%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate36.3%
- 2.17Points / drive0.79
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/34 | 153 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 85 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon Edwards | 5 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 4 | 9 | 36 | 1 |
| Charly Martin | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 14/28 | 149 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 6/8 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Williams | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| John Skelton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 11 | 63 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 5 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Early Doucet | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Ryan Williams | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.5%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.60