Closing spread
DAL -11
Total
46
Model margin
+2.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.047
- 38.9%Success rate45.1%
- -0.035EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.03CPOE+4.08
- 33.6%Third-down rate39.2%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.79
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 17/30 | 221 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 23 | 135 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 3 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 19/31 | 279 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 22 | 139 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Laurent Robinson | 5 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| John Phillips | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.79