Closing spread
NO -3
Total
53
Model margin
+3.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.094EPA / play+0.081
- 47.2%Success rate44.9%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.158
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.026
- 8.9%Explosive rate11.0%
- +0.89CPOE-1.55
- 43.1%Third-down rate42.2%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.17Points / drive1.90
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 31/49 | 325 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 9 | 110 | 12.2 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 13 | 14 | 128 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 13 | 71 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Courtney Roby | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 14/20 | 253 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 13 | 71 | 5.5 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 3 | 4 | 104 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 6 | 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Kealoha Pilares | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
6.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.20