2012 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

27·35

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

53

Model margin

+3.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

6.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.094EPA / play+0.081
  • 47.2%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.160EPA / dropback+0.158
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.026
  • 8.9%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +0.89CPOE-1.55
  • 43.1%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 73.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.17Points / drive1.90
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
NOQ1 15:001180Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 9:39636Punt7–0
NOQ1 6:1122Opp touchdown7–7
NOQ1 5:331072Field goal10–7
CARQ1 1:261076Turnover10–7
NOQ2 11:441057Field goal13–7
CARQ2 7:08884Touchdown13–14
NOQ2 3:3334Punt13–14
CARQ2 2:31858Touchdown13–21
NOQ2 0:1100End of half13–21
CARQ3 15:00516Punt13–21
NOQ3 12:4438Punt13–21
CARQ3 11:21767Touchdown13–28
NOQ3 8:17839Punt13–28
CARQ3 4:52633Punt13–28
NOQ3 1:28968Touchdown20–28
CARQ4 12:53680Touchdown20–35
NOQ4 9:55767Turnover on downs20–35
CARQ4 7:0939Punt20–35
NOQ4 4:491281Touchdown27–35
CARQ4 1:5536Punt27–35
NOQ4 0:4829Turnover27–35
CARQ4 0:2200End of half27–35

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees31/4932512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas911012.20
Mark Ingram16533.31
Drew Brees200.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Sproles13141280
Jimmy Graham713711
Marques Colston34490
Pierre Thomas46330
Lance Moore25300
Courtney Roby1190
Joseph Morgan1350
David Thomas0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton14/2025310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton13715.51
DeAngelo Williams14694.91
Jonathan Stewart11514.60
Brandon LaFell12525.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith341040
Brandon LaFell68900
Jonathan Stewart11171
Greg Olsen13130
Kealoha Pilares1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

6.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

48.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.20