Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
38
Model margin
+4.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.035
- 41.8%Success rate40.3%
- +0.015EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.126
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.5%
- -4.95CPOE+3.44
- 40.2%Third-down rate44.1%
- 43.6%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.69Points / drive1.89
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 20/33 | 233 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 8 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 2 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Braylon Edwards | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5 | 8 | 33 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Ben Hartsock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 10/19 | 133 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 27 | 121 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Isaac Redman | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heath Miller | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.35