2010 · CON

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

19·24

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 17°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -4

Total

38

Model margin

+4.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.035
  • 41.8%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.015EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.126
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -4.95CPOE+3.44
  • 40.2%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 43.6%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.69Points / drive1.89
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 10–6 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. PIT are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1PIT @ NYJ34–32PIT
2024 · W7NYJ @ PIT15–37PIT
2022 · W4NYJ @ PIT24–20NYJ
2019 · W16PIT @ NYJ10–16NYJ
2016 · W5NYJ @ PIT13–31PIT
2014 · W10PIT @ NYJ13–20NYJ
2013 · W6PIT @ NYJ19–6PIT
2012 · W2NYJ @ PIT10–27PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–PIT
PITQ1 15:001666Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 5:54919Punt0–7
PITQ1 1:43940Turnover0–7
NYJQ2 12:3233Punt0–7
PITQ2 10:32760Field goal0–10
NYJQ2 6:5133Punt0–10
PITQ2 5:57766Touchdown0–17
NYJQ2 2:003-14Opp touchdown0–24
NYJQ2 1:13739Field goal3–24
PITQ2 0:0900End of half3–24
NYJQ3 15:00590Touchdown10–24
PITQ3 12:13821Turnover10–24
NYJQ3 7:4233Punt10–24
PITQ3 6:4498Punt10–24
NYJQ3 0:501788Turnover on downs12–24
PITQ4 7:4410Safety12–24
NYJQ4 7:381058Touchdown19–24
PITQ4 3:06533End of half19–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez20/3323320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene9525.80
LaDainian Tomlinson9161.80
Mark Sanchez362.00
Jerricho Cotchery1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dustin Keller810640
Santonio Holmes25611
Braylon Edwards37500
Jerricho Cotchery58331
Brad Smith22250
Ben Hartsock0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger10/1913302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall271214.51
Isaac Redman4276.80
Ben Roethlisberger11211.91
Mewelde Moore1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Heath Miller24380
Rashard Mendenhall23320
Emmanuel Sanders13200
Hines Ward22140
Antonio Brown12140
Mewelde Moore1190
Mike Wallace1360
Matt Spaeth0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.35