Closing spread
OAK -1
Total
41
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutJacoby FordWRFoot· DNP
- OutRon BartellCBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableAlex ParsonsCShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJon CondoLSConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableJuron CrinerWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRolando McClainLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBRibs· Limited
- ProbableDenarius MooreWRHamstring· Limited
- ProbableRichard SeymourDTKnee· Limited
- ProbableSebastian JanikowskiKleft Groin· Limited
- ProbableBrandon MyersTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableDavid AusberryTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableMichael MitchellSRibs· Full
Dolphins
- OutDaniel ThomasRBConcussion· DNP
- OutTony McDanielDEKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulAnthony ArmstrongWRHamstring· DNP
- ProbableJonathan FreenyLBThumb· Full
- ProbableRandy StarksDEGroin· Full
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:19 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 7:05 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:28 | 7 | 96 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q1 0:11 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 12:32 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 10:55 | 3 | -14 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:21 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 7:49 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 6:46 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 5:07 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 3:33 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| MIA | Q2 0:46 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 10–7 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–7 |
| MIA | Q3 13:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q3 11:07 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–7 |
| MIA | Q3 9:34 | 4 | 44 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 7:57 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 10–14 |
| MIA | Q3 5:14 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| LV | Q3 3:52 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 10–21 |
| MIA | Q3 2:58 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LV | Q3 1:15 | 5 | 6 | Field goal | 13–21 |
| MIA | Q4 14:50 | 9 | 62 | Touchdown | 13–28 |
| LV | Q4 11:45 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–28 |
| MIA | Q4 10:24 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–35 |
| LV | Q4 5:06 | 7 | 53 | Turnover | 13–35 |
| MIA | Q4 2:32 | 7 | 33 | End of half | 13–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/30 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 26 | 172 | 6.6 | 2 |
| Lamar Miller | 10 | 65 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 9 | 12 | 111 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Legedu Naanee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.