Closing spread
OAK -1
Total
41
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/30 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 26 | 172 | 6.6 | 2 |
| Lamar Miller | 10 | 65 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 9 | 12 | 111 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Legedu Naanee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.