Closing spread
SD -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 12–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. SD are 9-3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 15/30 | 174 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 46 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 8 | 24 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.60
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.