2012 · Week 3 · Division

Final / OT

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

23·20

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.101EPA / play-0.049
  • 41.7%Success rate42.9%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.107
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -5.39CPOE-2.89
  • 36.9%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 47.4%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.37
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
NYJQ1 15:0055Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 13:20847Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 9:14815Punt0–7
MIAQ1 5:10528Punt0–7
NYJQ1 2:57822Punt0–7
MIAQ2 14:141370Field goal0–10
NYJQ2 8:261572Field goal3–10
MIAQ2 1:50511End of half3–10
MIAQ3 15:0020Opp touchdown10–10
MIAQ3 14:1614Turnover10–10
NYJQ3 14:08619Turnover10–10
MIAQ3 10:37521Punt10–10
NYJQ3 7:2437Punt10–10
MIAQ3 6:061165Touchdown10–17
NYJQ3 1:45775Field goal13–17
MIAQ4 13:29841Missed field goal13–17
NYJQ4 10:4130Punt13–17
MIAQ4 10:1930Punt13–17
NYJQ4 9:50522Punt13–17
MIAQ4 7:1335Punt13–17
NYJQ4 5:34863Touchdown20–17
MIAQ4 3:011229Field goal20–20
NYJQ4 0:1636End of half20–20
NYJOT835Punt20–20
MIAOT760Missed field goal20–20
NYJOT447Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez21/4530612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell10454.50
Shonn Greene19402.10
Tim Tebow155.00
Mark Sanchez144.00
Joe McKnight1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes9141470
Jeremy Kerley23731
Jeff Cumberland26250
Bilal Powell25240
Chaz Schilens23160
Konrad Reuland22120
Shonn Greene2290
Tim Tebow0100
Clyde Gates0100
Stephen Hill0700

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill16/3619601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Thomas19693.61
Reggie Bush10616.10
Lamar Miller9485.30
Ryan Tannehill331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davone Bess57860
Anthony Fasano510470
Brian Hartline19410
Daniel Thomas12110
Anthony Armstrong2690
Reggie Bush1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.28