Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play-0.049
- 41.7%Success rate42.9%
- -0.139EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.107
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- -5.39CPOE-2.89
- 36.9%Third-down rate37.7%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 1.20Points / drive1.37
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 21/45 | 306 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 19 | 40 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 9 | 14 | 147 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 3 | 73 | 1 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Chaz Schilens | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Konrad Reuland | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 16/36 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Thomas | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 61 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 5 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 5 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.28